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If you are feeling election anxiety today...

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bobbooo

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Vasr

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There are a lot of things (absurdities) about the US Presidential elections that are going to confound people outside the US as we see this soap-opera being played out because it is going to expose every one of those absurdities.

People may think of this as a sports game when there is an official end of time and there is an official score at the end of that time and the winner is the one with the highest score.

In theory, the above is what happens with the President elections but that is not until December. Everything that happens before then is norms and traditions not "game rules". I am not sure how many people realize it is the traditional role of the media to "call the election" and that candidates voluntarily choose to concede before then again as a tradition to have a President-elect.

Traditions don't apply in the Trump era.

So when does a candidate win in the US Presidential election? It is very fuzzy.

The President is officially selected by electors that are appointed by each state after they have certified the results of the election. This does not happen well into December.

Who declares a candidate has won before then? The media! Nobody else. And traditionally that has been taken as the de facto standard for who is considered a winner. The "losing candidate" by tradition (not rules) concedes an election and from then on, the President-elect is understood (again by tradition).

This "tradition" may be severely tested this year.

When does a state declare who won their state? They don't. They just certify the results and choose electors which implies a winner for their state. There is no official body that tabulates over all states and declares a winner. Not until the electors come together in December. Only the media decides until then!

When is there a definitive result? It is a bit fuzzy. The counting can go on many weeks and is kind of asymptotic in reaching towards an end. Because there are absentee ballots, overseas ballots, provisional ballots, contested ballots, recounts, etc. So waiting until "every last vote" is counted is well into December. In any state.

Now, one might reasonably say that one (meaning the media in its traditional role) can call an election when a candidate has won mathematically. Since there is no chance that the losing candidate can make up even when all votes are eventually counted. This only works if there is a sufficiently large difference and good visibility into how many votes are still remaining to be counted (which can be fuzzy for reasons listed above). So, it would be difficult to call in close elections.

BUT, in this day of instant gratifications, when the media outlets are competing commercially, there is pressure to call it as early as possible. So, they don't even necessarily wait for mathematical certainty but base it on their "models" that considers some surveys, past history patterns, etc. The "model" can turn out to be wrong. So this is already fuzzy by now. This is how Fox and AP called for Arizona very early with no mathematical certainties of an outcome.

But, in addition the calls may be affected by political pressures and talk of litigation, etc., which makes the fuzzy "models" even more fuzzier.

Right now Fox is under tremendous political pressure not to call Nevada or Georgia or Pennsylvania even if it reaches mathematical certainty there because they would have to call for Biden as winner as they have already called Arizona for Biden. So, they will wait for beyond mathematical certainty in these latest states. Meanwhile, every media outlet is looking at everybody else as sort of a game theory approach on when to call. They will jump in shortly.

But even with all media outlets calls, there are no official rules that require Trump to concede to proceed with a "Winner" as decided. There may be some pressure on him to do so within his party but nobody tells Trump what to do at the risk of incurring his wrath. So he does not need to concede, nor will there be an official winner until the electors from each state are certified and they come together to vote for the President sometime in December. Until then Biden would be presumptive elect only. Meanwhile, there will likely be a lot of obfuscation and legal challenges flying around.

"Traditions and norms", the centerpiece of US Democracy and its weakest spot.

Not exactly like the end of a Baseball or Cricket match is it?
 
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