- Thread Starter
- #21
And yet OLED TVs are getting cheaper. Last May I bought 65cx for ~$1600 and thought it was a good price. This year 65c1 is constantly at ~1100.
Inflation alone does not make sense in this case
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Hold off your purchases?
- Thread starter delta76
- Start date
Inflation alone does not make sense in this case
One outfit I know went from record profit last year because of increased demand to zero profit Q1/Q2 2022 due to supply shortages making it hard to sell enough volume. I suspect others are facing similar issues. BTW AVR's are small market compared to TV (not to mention automotive) so as customer you're on the bottom of the list with the chip guys. High-end audio is super small niche for the chip companies so you're lucky if you get anyone to pick up the phone there.
Inflation can have multiple causes. One is injecting too much money into an economy that is already operating at full capacity. The other is if for some reason a particular product is no longer available in the same quantities as before, and hence this scarcity results in a higher price. A bad harvest leads to a higher price of wheat etc, and a shortage of fuel leads to higher fuel prices.
Deflation is something economists want to avoid because it encourages people to postpone spending, and that leads to a downward spiral in economic activity. There is some consensus that about 2% inflation is the optimum. So if inflation drops below that, and if the economy is not operating under full capacity/full employment, it makes sense to inject money into the economy. This is what was done after the 2008 financial crisis, and to great effect (the FED and others had learned the lessons from the Great Depression).
Right now, the post Covid economy in many countries is operating at full blast, with very low unemployment etc. So it makes sense to slowly raise interest rates, and stop injecting money into the economy, and this is indeed what monetary authorities have been doing. With high inflation in many countries there is an argument in favour of doing this more agressively, but here the problem is that much of the inflation is not the product of an overheated economy but of supply bottlenecks that will not go away with higher interest rates. Raising them a lot more may push the economy into recession while inflation remains high because its cause is not the overheated economy but supply chain issues. So it is an unpleasant dilemma where stagflation looms. The best option is, where possible, to adress the supply chain problems, however hard that may be.
Deflation is something economists want to avoid because it encourages people to postpone spending, and that leads to a downward spiral in economic activity. There is some consensus that about 2% inflation is the optimum. So if inflation drops below that, and if the economy is not operating under full capacity/full employment, it makes sense to inject money into the economy. This is what was done after the 2008 financial crisis, and to great effect (the FED and others had learned the lessons from the Great Depression).
Right now, the post Covid economy in many countries is operating at full blast, with very low unemployment etc. So it makes sense to slowly raise interest rates, and stop injecting money into the economy, and this is indeed what monetary authorities have been doing. With high inflation in many countries there is an argument in favour of doing this more agressively, but here the problem is that much of the inflation is not the product of an overheated economy but of supply bottlenecks that will not go away with higher interest rates. Raising them a lot more may push the economy into recession while inflation remains high because its cause is not the overheated economy but supply chain issues. So it is an unpleasant dilemma where stagflation looms. The best option is, where possible, to adress the supply chain problems, however hard that may be.
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Vacceo
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My fave method to see speculation in audio gear over here (Europe) is taking a look at McIntosh. Not even with the current dollar-euro parity, EU prices are reasonable.
Even Nvidia and AMD had supply issues releasing GPU´s and CPU´s (in the case of AMD), and those are far bigger players on the silicone market than audio manufacturers, so yeah, things look bad for the near future.
I was super lucky to get a GPU and a CPU last year at manufacturer´s suggested prices...
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Life's short; buy what you really want, when you can.
ta240
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Unfortunately, supplies are so low that they don't have much, if anything, left at the end of the model year. I remember heading to Crutchfield's site every fall to check out the half price AVRs as the new models came out. I really miss looking at car prices to see the ones 20%+ off as the new models came out.
For years the consumer benefited from a huge over supply of merchandise and manufactures/retailers that were willing to make next to nothing on their products just to keep them moving. Companies competed to see who could make the least on what they sold just to have people buy their product. Now they have so many fewer items available that they can sell them for a more normal markup. Thus their 'record' profits as they are producing less and making more on each. Just look at the number of audio companies that had been bought up in the recent past as they struggled; selling super cheap wasn't working that well for them.
I've heard it claimed that companies may not go back to flooding the market but only time will tell as all it takes is one deciding that lots of products at tiny profit are good, to send them all back down the spiral.
Very true. It just makes me pause and think about what I really want; which is probably a good thing.
D
Deleted member 19122
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Well another point at least for the AVR market is the consolidation of brands and the exit of Onkyo/Pioneer basically from the market.Having Denon and Marantz under one roof has not been good for prices as what was the mid tier brand has now effectively become the entry tier brand with little competition.If Onkyo/Pioneer/Integra get up to full speed I think we'll see prices come down across the whole avr market.
Vacceo
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The jump in price on Anthem does not help to keep AVR prices contained. For AVP's, it's even worse because the competence is McIntosh and well...
A good oled for a grand over here (Europe): I never thought I'd see that. And it's lowering...
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Re containers, covid made it worse, but what really did it was the USA deciding to do dredging and clearance work on the LA port which caused waiting times to offload to peak at three weeks, vs the more usual 2-3 days. That's an awful lot on containers, sat on an awful lot of ships.
And of course our old friends hedge funds, buying up futures on the open market and holding enough of them to skew pricing and give them a huge return.
And of course our old friends hedge funds, buying up futures on the open market and holding enough of them to skew pricing and give them a huge return.
- Thread Starter
- #30
This is how I usually justify my purchases. But in this economy better to be patient.
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Shipping prices skyrocketed in 2020, long before oil or anything else. It happened when the ports backed up towards the end of the year.
Funny I would have had the 701 I think it was, there was an open box one on some website called Hifi heaven i think for about $500, then I realized those jerks weren't going to ship until a few months down the road (wtf?) and cancelled the order.
DVDdoug
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Sometimes technological advances bring prices down over the long term. But here in the U.S. I don't expect the government to EVER stop printing money and diluting its value. And everywhere in the modern world there is a push for more expensive energy sources and that increases the cost of everything.
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Yes understood. The phrase "when you can" was meant to encompass any such considerations.
What with the resurgence of vinyl really getting going around 2012, I think a number of manufacturers are really milking their cartridge prices for all they are worth. This added to all the economy nonsense of the past 14 years, especially the last few, for me it would be uneconomical to run my turntable with the same cartridge I used 10 years ago, if it wasn't for the fact I infrequently play records now.
JSmith
Master Contributor
This store in Germany seems to have the model and also seems to ship to other countries;
A-S 301 Vollverstärker Stereo silber | media@home HiFi Profis in Darmstadt
Exzellentes Schaltungsdesign, basierend auf dem ToP-ART-Konzept für höchste Klangqualität: Das ToP-ART-Konzept (Total Purity Audio Reproduction Tec...
JSmith
- Thread Starter
- #38
thanks. a bit more, ~3500kr. but my question is more of a general one than just buying this one (I'm interested in AS line and want to use that as example - will probably buy 701 if the price is right).This store in Germany seems to have the model and also seems to ship to other countries;
It's €339 plus shipping, which is around 3400kr isn't it?A-S 301 Vollverstärker Stereo silber | media@home HiFi Profis in Darmstadt
Exzellentes Schaltungsdesign, basierend auf dem ToP-ART-Konzept für höchste Klangqualität: Das ToP-ART-Konzept (Total Purity Audio Reproduction Tec...www.mediaathome.de
JSmith
IMO if you want and can buy something without compromising other needs now - I'd not wait.
I see no rational reasons for prices to go down but bankruptcy of retailers that will be accompanied with big sale.
Everything in modern economy is underpriced if we look closer at money printed in all QEs and huge derivative debts.
Inflation is leaking into real economy, because there's controvercy between need of constant GDP and indexes' growth and constraints of physical world like HR, energy, etc.
I see no rational reasons for prices to go down but bankruptcy of retailers that will be accompanied with big sale.
Everything in modern economy is underpriced if we look closer at money printed in all QEs and huge derivative debts.
Inflation is leaking into real economy, because there's controvercy between need of constant GDP and indexes' growth and constraints of physical world like HR, energy, etc.
JSmith
Master Contributor
€640 for the silver, black is higher at €720 for some odd reason...
A-S 701 Vollverstärker Stereo silber | media@home HiFi Profis in Darmstadt
JSmith
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