Economy/Finances | Stock Markets | World/International

[NorthSky]

A thread to discuss money matters, how our stocks are doing (Tesla, Bitcoin, Apple, Microsoft, Air Transportation, Cancer Pharmaceutical, Blood Cure, Colgate Palmolive, Coke, Pepsi, Campbell Soup, Oil Exploration, Gold Mining, etc.).

• https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/amphtm...ional-right-now-heres-can-tell-110034753.html

The economy is like audio, it can be jittery. And irrational of course the markets can be when insecurity is lower and securities are not performing optimally and the confidence level doesn't inspire to go shopping for the goods...new TVs, new amplifier stereos, new kitchen sinks, etc. The consumer spending is always a good indicator, plus jobs that contribute to the community...economy.

The value of the dollar in some countries is so that people can't afford to buy food and clothing. In other countries they have no worries but only about themselves.
A global balanced economy is based on the répartition of investments to benefit everyone, including the most needy, the shareholders.

The Dow and the NASDAQ (US), had a very good long run for many many years.
Recently we have seen a small reverse trend. The analysts predict some jitter ahead, perhaps a small temporary correction, I just don't know I am not an expert I only have some invested interests to be concerned slightly about, way less than trillions and billions of dollars, much less but nonetheless.

Also the economy (global) is reflective of transactions, deals, bargains, exchanges and good honest deeds around the country and the world.
Insurance and pharmaceutical companies for example are good human resources that are beneficial to the good secured wealth and good health maintenance. A good supply of blood is important for those rainy days. ...A fresh supply of air anf clean water as well.

I am taking a small beating right now, how is your butt doing...a little pinky or more reddish?

 

[bobhol]

Afraid to look at the moment.

 

[Krunok]

IMHO it's going to get only worse from here. At first not that much, but I think it will accelerate down by the end of next year/beginning of 2020.

 

[NorthSky]

There are some fluctuations happening in the world, with some out-of-the-box turbulence and less than expected expectations. ...Some elasticity and reticence.
Of course the trades between Canada, USA, Mexico, China, Russia, UK, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan, ...are a little different now than they were not that long ago.

The energy sector scares me a little. And the airplane industry, travelling, precious metals, and metals.

I'm all in for a good economy and high profits. Jobs are important, so is pension and a good health system. The work we do, for who we work, should encourage healthy pension. But not all jobs do, and the governments are counting more on us than us on them.

A good financial advisor who you trust is a good asset. In perilous times, on the precipice of investment losses, a visit face-to-face might be required for security reasons.
Keep your receipts, control your impulse purchases, check your superfluous spending.

I think we're still in good hands across the globe. Our financial leaders and assets management teams only have to concentrate on the main priorities...humanity and the well being of our planet. The rest comes automatically, for the best.
We depend tremendously on the opening and closing of the main tap.
Let's keep an open lid on it while we put more electric cars on our roads and feed the starving children. Did you read/hear about it?

 

[Jorj]

I liquidated stock holdings when the market reached 3% down from its 2018 high. Got back in once it hit -10%, and am still getting paddled. I tend to avoid moves in reaction to market swings, but it is so overvalued right now, a bear market could be truly devastating.

 

[NorthSky]

I like your avatar. Is it a tree, a mushroom, a sign of things to come in the world's financial markets?

 

[Jorj]

If you are a fan of SciFi, look up Jorj McKie, saboteur extraordinaire.

-edit-
I rather liked The Dosadi Experiment.

 

[NorthSky]

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dosadi_Experiment

There is no film, yet. It would make the perfect sci-fi subject, a good solid investment in movie stocks.

 

[CaptObvious]

Looking to short the market with the aggressive SPXU 3x inverse ETF. Going long on put options on QQQ seems like a idea too.

 

[Wombat]

Too much profit sucked out of the market( spending capability depleted) and the market can't be sustained. Down it goes. The cashed-up buy-up the sound depreciated assets.
Governments subsidise recovery( everyday taxpayers pay) and the cycle begins again. Economics as a science - Phooey.

 

[Jorj]

Looking to short the market with the aggressive SPXU 3x inverse ETF. Going long on put options on QQQ seems like a idea too.

That sounds like aggressive butt-hurt to me. We're +10% down from ATH, fundamentals are no different or a bit better than they were 3 months ago, excepting the Fed rate hikes. Earnings were solid, revenues were solid, very few under-performed estimates. It's too soon for the tariffs to cause anything more than jitters (like how I got some audio in there?). IMO, YMMV, ect.

I think there are a lot of solid buys through the year-end, and the indexes will rally substantially. At some point there will be a trigger for a true crash, but those are ALWAYS followed by a depression, and the indicators for depression just are not there. If you have brass cojones, enjoy the volatility!

 

[Thomas savage]

Well if your burning wheelbarrows of cash just to stay warm , your in the shit.. otherwise I’d not worry , as worry itself is a self for filling prophesy it seems.

My fiscal rules ..,

Don’t buy any depreciable assets you can’t afford to lose , damage or otherwise compromise.
Don’t invest in things you don’t understand
Don’t invest any amount of money that will stop you sleeping
Don’t align your self esteem with your bank account
Spread it about, don’t invest in your area of work else your doubling down on potential issues

Oh , keep your Mrs happy as their unhappiness will be your biggest expense.

 

[NorthSky]

That last line Thomas, it has truth ringing all around it.

 

[North_Sky]

With the economy not in its best ever position, why is it that the stock market is doing good in North America? Some kind of bubble, more money circulating (stimulus), Tesla shares are doing great, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, ...?

If you would have asked me say three months ago I wouldn't have been able to predict where we are today.

These are very unusual times, and many things defy many logics.
Some countries are doing better than others on the economic soundstage, China for example.

 

[TimF]

Reality will eventually have its way. A lot of households in the USA and other parts of the world that are restrained due to covid 19 are experiencing income reductions that have persisted for four to five months. The newly implemented second round lockdowns in California and Texas, and renewed diligence in other areas, mean that there will not be a quick economic return to normal. We are in for perhaps 3 to six more months of economic restraint. The economy is on a heavy dose of downers. That shock is playing out but it hasn't as yet shown up much or been reported in the economic indicators. I don't see how we can avoid a big jump in evictions, perhaps missed mortgage payments, auto and truck repossessions. Local and state governments are beginning to see big effects in income. They are beginning to respond. Budget cuts are being prepared. Budget cuts are being implemented. Hours are being cut, staff will soon be cut. They very same thing must be happening in some industries and sectors. Governments and industry can weather maybe three to six months of poor finances but not seven, eight or ten months of that. Institutions are going to have to play catch up to adjust output with income. If one-third to one-half of households are in poor straights or soon to be, there is no possibility for a quick return to normal. The party is over. Note: the last few years the US economy has been pumped up by big deficit spending. The party was ending anyway regardless of covid 19. Covid 19 only made the ending of the party more certain and more terrible. We have a big hangover coming. Can't be avoided. A lot of households newly on queer street and more and more every day. Just be glad you don't own or have leases on Boeing 737 max 8 or 9's, or a warehouse full of spring, summer or fall clothing, or a warehouse of new motorcycles, or a fleet of rental cars at vacation hotspots.

 

[HemiRick]

The market is only maintaining because the FED is throwing huge amounts of money at it. As soon as this stops, its gonna be BAD.

 

[Hiten]

Some countries are doing better than others on the economic soundstage, China for example.

It is curiously surprising that after corona peak in February china has almost negligible corona cases. Even with mass testing and hardly any no lockdown how did they contained it so effectively ? When people are moving around as normally (as Pre corona times) little less than 300 cases in the whole 1.4 billion population is surprising.
Regards

 

[Soundstage]

It is curiously surprising that after corona peak in February china has almost negligible corona cases. Even with mass testing and hardly any no lockdown how did they contained it so effectively ? When people are moving around as normally (as Pre corona times) little less than 300 cases in the whole 1.4 billion population is surprising.
Regards

Hardly no lockdown?

 

[Hiten]

Hardly no lockdown?

Their peak cases were in February. I think only 10 day lockdown near beijing recently(earlu July). Pretty low no for a big country with good population. Dont know If there were other lockdowns during these four months.
Regards

 

[pozz]

The market is only maintaining because the FED is throwing huge amounts of money at it. As soon as this stops, its gonna be BAD.

This isn't accurate.

• Banks, loan agencies and landlords are extending relief in the form of extensions and forgiveness. There are many versions of this but it's helping certain businesses and people through the pandemic. A good portion of financing is locked-in, so if businesses need to draw operating capital they can.
• Certain businesses are moving entirely online and closing up traditional offices, so commercial real estate is opening up. Others have adjusted their service models to allow for more remote work. IT providers, server and data centers have had a stream of work, for example.
• Large allocators like pensions have, if anything, increased their level of investment to take advantage of the downturn.
• US government partnership investment programs like TALF are adding to the pool of available capital.

The interaction of the different pieces allows some level of stability. Another market collapse like we saw in March is pretty likely, but I'm unsure about a repeat of what we saw a decade ago during the financial crisis. That would have to be triggered in some way by piled-up obligations coming to a breaking point (a large amount of debt being due and unable to be refinanced/renegotiated all at once), with insufficent back-up capital to satisfy those obligations. That this is already happening with individuals is undeniable. I really don't know enough to make predictions.

The political implications are even scarier, since it looks like the level of security and reasons to block movement will stay in place.