Because of the large sample size in that academic scenario, that means you would be confident that the test result was not achieved with random scoring, so you have successfully detected a difference.
That's not because of the "large sample size", but rather because you reached p < 0.023. You could be equally (actually more) confident with 15/20 test (p < 0.021). What the "large sample size" gives you, is that you get more confidence in detecting very small effects when they actually exist.
AFAIU (
and again, I'm not a statistician) there are 2 types of errors that can happen in a test:
- false positive - you detect an effect when in reality there is none
- false negative - you don't detect any effect when in reality there is one
You adjust your sensitivity (how much you care/want to avoid) to false positives by lowering p and to false negatives by increasing the number of trials. In your academic scenario of p < 0.05 and 10'000 trials you:
- really, really want to detect even the smallest effect when the effect actually exists, i.e. you want to avoid false negative,
- and you care much less (comparatively) whether you detect an effect when no effect actually exists, i.e. you care less about false positives.
I suspect that for p < 0.05 and 10 trials it's the opposite:
- you don't want to "accidently" detect an effect when no effect actually exists, i.e. you want to avoid false positive,
- and you care less (comparatively) whether you miss an effect when the effect actually exists, i.e. you care less about false negatives.
Note that I wrote "comparatively". As p is the same in both scenarios, you care about "false positives" the same in scenario 1 as in scenario 2. It's only your care about "false negatives" that is different, either in one direction or the other.
I presume there is some number of trials that gives you the same "care" about false positives as about false negatives, but I don't know what that number is.
Your second reference says:
Threshold values may now be determined from the plot by arbitrarily selecting, say 75%, as the threshold value.
It says they MAY be determined, not that they have to be determined.
Please, don't pick one sentence out of context. It also says:
In the 2AFC procedure, the percentages range from 50% to 100% as compared to 0% to 100% in the regular MCS psychometric function. That is because as the stimulus becomes too dim to detect the subject is guessing which interval the flash was in. The guessing rate is 50% for two alternatives.
and
Because guessing will lead to a percentage of correct responses equal to the reciprocal of the number of alternatives, the level at which threshold is defined must be adjusted for chance. In the curve below, plotting the psychometric function for a 2AFC experiment, the threshold is defined as 75% correct. This corresponds to a 50% threshold in a psychometric function derived from a yes/no detection experiment.
Let's say we have an experiment where we play a sound and ask a subject whether they hear it. Or another, where we play a reference sound and another sound and ask the subject whether they sound the same. We repeat that 100 times. These are YES/NO experiments. If the subject truly doesn't hear the sound or the difference, we get 100x NO. If the subject has no problems hearing it, we get 100x YES. Somewhere in between there is the sound level or the difference level where we get 50x YES and 50x NO. That's the level where it is heard half of the time and this is JND.
Let's say we repeat this experiment but using ABX, i.e. 2 Alternatives Forced Choice (2AFC) test. This time, if the subject truly doesn't hear the difference, we get 50 correct answers because they have to choose something and
by chance will choose correctly half the time. If the subject has no problems hearing it, we get 100 correct answers. The level where
they heard the difference half the time (
and not just randomly chose) is halfway between 50 and 100, so at 75 correct answers.
In my extreme example it was actually p<0.05 because the probability of random scoring was low.
I don't like JND, but I think the p<0.5 criterion should apply to audio as well - or at least be the starting point for discussion, rather than p<0.05.
I just don't see what would be the difference between that and a single coin toss (beside saved time

).