And that is the issue hovering over all of this:
How much is enough?
For any particular claim, or blind test, how much is enough in order to accept the results?
We are trying to maintain a scientific mindset, but of course it’s the case that there’s the important distinction between “the evidence is conclusive” and “the evidence is sufficient to rationally accept the conclusion for now.” Science almost never gives us the former in the absolute sense. There is no point at which science normally says “all possible objections have been eliminated.”
A lot of science consists of peers trying to find weaknesses in each other’s work.
You’ll have scientist who find the evidence from a certain study to be persuasive, others who think the evidence is suggestive but insufficient, others who hold that there’s likely a methodological flaw that substantially undermines the conclusion.
So individual scientists and communities are stuck making judgments about how much evidential weight should be assigned to the available evidence. They can be rational judgments, but there’s still often an element of subjectivity as to where one grants assent to the conclusions.
And you can see that playing out in this thread. There’s a variety of suggestions as to what it would take to justify accepting the results of Josh’s test right down to sending the ABX box, all his cabling and all the DACs to ASR.
You’ve got folks like pablolie who has said essentially he rejects the results out of hand, not even interested in exploring the results.
There’s PMA’s response to Josh’s test:
“I am not much interested in his results, even if they were 100/100 success. The reason is, as I have mentioned many times, that his test conditions cannot be independently verified and repeated.”
Some seem to think measuring the ABX box will be enlightening, others seem to think it still doesn’t guarantee it will allow us to rule for or against Josh’s results.
It doesn’t seem surprising an audiophile might conclude: “
OK I followed these recommended steps to do a blind test and I got my results, I’m going to decide how much creedence to put in the results. And I also understand that if I present my results to others, there’s always going to be someone who might accept the results and others who reject the results as undemonstrated, because somebody can always come up with something more that could’ve gone wrong, or more stringent requirements in order for them to accept the results. So I’m going to draw my own line.” And that the line one draws is going to be different from the lines drawn by other people here.
And on the theme of an individual audiophile doing blind testing:
Before I did my last blind test between my preamplifiers I watched
Amir’s excellent video on how to do blind testing, which included instructions for people to try blind testing at home. (It’s also my impression that the protocols Amir is willing to accept or suggest in that video are allowed to be somewhat looser than the level of scrutiny being brought Josh’s test).
@amirm , You mentioned in the “how to repeat the tests” portion about how one can do blind randomized, switching between two different audio items, and you conclude:
Compare the two and see how many you got right, and “
if you didn’t get nine out of 10 right, I’d say you just learned something important about audio that you didn’t know.”
But what if you
did get 9 out of 10 right? Did you also just learn something about audio? Presumably positive results count as well.
Let’s say somebody had blind swapped between two different AC cables and they got nine out of 10 guesses right. Did they just learn something about audio?
We would agree that on technical grounds those results would be very implausible, and would more likely point to a flaw in the test.
But this would mean that the individual would need that type of wider context knowledge to know how much epistemic weight to give their results. Successful blind test results are not enough. (I would use the heuristic “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” to navigate this space, but of course that takes some knowledge of what amounts to an extraordinary claim in audio engineering and psychoacoustics).
And then you start to get the gray areas…. Differences between amplifiers, especially tube amplifiers, DACs….
Did I for instance learn that (years ago) in using the type of protocol you suggested in your video, where my results for identifying between CDPs and a DAC were well beyond chance…that I should accept my results? Did I learn the truth that they really sounded different?
If I present the methods here and there’s nothing that stands out to others indicating a flaw people can put their finger on, folks can still reject the results because there may be some hidden flaw I wasn’t aware of and is not reported properly. (which is a properly scientific mindset…. It’s the reason for other parties trying to replicating results),
That being the case
is it ever justified to accept the results of a blind test we individuals attempt at home?
(this is very far from a slippery-slope throwing up of hands and saying “ therefore how can any scrutiny ever settle any claim?” I have my own views of how to answer some of these questions, but I’m looking to see what other members here have to say).