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Coronavirus Is Indiscriminate

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Wombat

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Sal1950

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Another virus thread? :facepalm:
 
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Wombat

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Another virus thread? :facepalm:

Yep.

The original thread was about Conavirus and China. Things have moved along since then.

I am interested in comments from our international membership on how they see/experience this catastrophe in their countries and locales.
 
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Sgt. Ear Ache

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I wonder how long before those monkeys start taking down people riding by on bikes and scooters...yeesh

I'm in central Canada and so far only a handful of confirmed cases here in my city. Things are getting strange though. Pretty much all events are being shut down. Schools closing and public facilities closing. People are hoarding stuff.
 

oivavoi

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Report from Norway: We are on lockdown. Basically the whole society has shut down, because schools closed, parents need to be at home with their kids, and nobody can go to work or buy stuff in the stores. Kind of strange. I have some very mild symptoms myself, so I basically assume I've got it, given that I was exposed to a person who probably has it. But I'm not worried, as it's been five days and no serious symptoms have appeared. I just need to get other people who don't have any symptoms to buy groceries for us. In some way it's also nice to just relax at home, read, watch netflix, take walks in the forest well away from others, and have the time to post dumb comments on ASR.

I must admit that I'm debating with myself whether we've chosen the right approach or not. Sweden and the UK has chosen not to close society down. Will more people die there than here? Probably, but we don't know yet. How do we weigh the extra deaths in the short-term vs completely shutting down the economy, which causes immense stress to lots of people, and more death and suffering down the road? I don't know. My dad and my nephew are probably among those who might be vulnerable, for different reasons. Many other people are in similar situations. So personally I'm glad that the measures have been so radical. But for society as a whole? I'm not sure anymore.

EDIT: I'm anyway glad that there are professionals and politicians who can make these decisions, so people like me don't have to!
 
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Juhazi

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Next problem is - when will restrictions be cancelled? That is a much more difficult decision to make!
 

SIY

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I'm glad I'm not in California- they have directed anyone 65 and older to stay in their home. So I'd be out of work and unable to pay the rent on the home I'm supposed to stay in. :D
 

tuga

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the UK has chosen not to close society down.

The UK is preparing for Brexit. I wonder how much weight that has put in the Goverment's decision. If closing down society has a strong impact on the economy then Britain will strugle even more from the impact of Brexit.
 

Xulonn

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Panama - Here is today's email COVID-19 news update (from an expat who translates the notices from Spanish to English for an expat email list:
Starting tomorrow, March 16, 2020 only humanitarian supplies will be allowed off airplanes in Panama.

Any returning resident foreigner or Panama citizen will be allowed entry, but will be required to be in preventive isolation at home for 14 days.

(Per tweet by President Cortizo translated by James Bondoux)
The Ministry due to the national emergency orders the temporary closure of commercial establishments throughout the country, excepting supermarkets, pharmacies, medical centers and establishments for the sale of health products, fuel, and food. This applies to commercial centers.

Pertaining to restaurants, service to the public by inside seating is suspended.The sale of food prepared for local consumption will be allowed, exclusively for take away or home delivery.

For access to establishments whose opening is allowed, the public is encouraged to use masks. In addition, access to beaches, rivers, swimming pools and public spas is prohibited.

The Ministry of Health, in coordination with the State security departments, is empowered to carry out sanitary closures throughout the territory.

Surveillance includes entry to commercial and non-commercial establishments, which includes hotels, casinos, restaurants, as well as playgrounds that operate inside and outside restaurants or private residential complexes.

It is prohibited for supermarkets to have more than fifty people inside. Mechanisms should be established so that users forma line outside the establishment, keeping a distance of not less than one meter between each client.
 
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The UK is preparing for Brexit. I wonder how much weight that has put in the Goverment's decision. If closing down society has a strong impact on the economy then Britain will strugle even more from the impact of Brexit.


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Wombat

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If you are at a higher level of vulnerability to post-infection consequences then it is your responsibility to minimise your risk of infection to yourself and others, if you are able to.

If you are of lower risk of infection you are responsible for not carelessly infecting yourself and others.

There is enough easily accessible guidance published to render the 'not me' attitude personally and socially irresponsible, if not selfish.

"Attention, attention, now hear this" as in wartime. Carelessness costs lives even if not yours.
 
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captain paranoia

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It doesn't offer a good guideline on anything else beyond what is obvious to anyone who reads

Indeed. It's just a list of "well, what about.. ?", which anyone with half a brain can do. It offers no guidance on what we should be doing. Apart from better testing to better understand the epidemiology.

Whilst his final section considers the consequences of a 60% total infection rate, his earlier discussion uses a 1% assumption for the US. The Princess Diamond infection rate was 17%, even with infection control measures. The US decided to remove its citizens because it was clear that those measures were inadequate, leaving its citizens at risk. Other countries were forced to follow suit, and eventually all passengers were released and the containment abandoned. It appears that this virus is unusually infectious.

The other thing that limited case studies such as cruise liners don't consider is the ability to supportively treat a few hundreds, spread across multiple nations. A more interesting case study might be the Italian situation, where, as I understand it, selective treatment had to be deployed due to the numbers, choosing not to treat those considered likely to die anyway. That would be more representative of the rapid peaking situation that would occur with a laissez-faire approach.
 

Blumlein 88

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Indeed. It's just a list of "well, what about.. ?", which anyone with half a brain can do. It offers no guidance on what we should be doing. Apart from better testing to better understand the epidemiology.

Whilst his final section considers the consequences of a 60% total infection rate, his earlier discussion uses a 1% assumption for the US. The Princess Diamond infection rate was 17%, even with infection control measures. The US decided to remove its citizens because it was clear that those measures were inadequate, leaving its citizens at risk. Other countries were forced to follow suit, and eventually all passengers were released and the containment abandoned. It appears that this virus is unusually infectious.

The other thing that limited case studies such as cruise liners don't consider is the ability to supportively treat a few hundreds, spread across multiple nations. A more interesting case study might be the Italian situation, where, as I understand it, selective treatment had to be deployed due to the numbers, choosing not to treat those considered likely to die anyway. That would be more representative of the rapid peaking situation that would occur with a laissez-faire approach.
He used 1% for the fatality rate. And talked about the fact 20% of those tested were positive while only testing those exposed or showing symptoms. I think even he would agree he is working with a paucity of data. He did the later guess at 1% for the general US pop based upon the idea only 20% and mostly elderly people were infected in a closed condition on the Princess Diamond cruise ship. To me that was the very weakest part of his argument even using his data. Using his lower rate of fatal cases if something more like 20% of the population in general is infected you start seeing exceptionally large numbers of deaths.

The main point of his paper is that the way testing was rolled out you were always going to see an exponential curve for new cases. Had it been started a month earlier or month later the rollout of testing was initially meager, and is growing and as long as some have the virus the number testing positive was always going to rise exponentially initially. They lack the other side of things. How many in your population have it, and how is it spreading. To do that you have to pick 1000 or 10,000 people fully at random to get a handle on it, and test them maybe every week for a month to see how the numbers go. With tests in short supply no one was willing to do that. So being in the dark on that you might be making these extreme decisions fearing the coming exponential growth of new cases when the actual path of the disease in the population may be nothing like that.
 

Alice of Old Vincennes

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"You take the risk and we make more money" culture is resisting the current pandemic action plans:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/mar/18/tech-execs-who-dont-agree-coronavirus-measures
My next door neighbor and his Wife were on the
"You take the risk and we make more money" culture is resisting the current pandemic action plans:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/mar/18/tech-execs-who-dont-agree-coronavirus-measures
 

Alice of Old Vincennes

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My next door neighbor and his wife were on the Princess Diana for 50th wedding anniversary. It was boring but food and booze was good. The base in Texas was horrible. Food sucked. They were lucky. Both negative.
 

RayDunzl

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So far, other than being a little more careful on my few outings, nothing has changed in my routine, such as it is.

Still going to need to find some hamburger buns.

Or, I can fire up the breadmaker after I read up on how to make hamburger buns. Already have the ingredients for that little chore.

Good luck to all those not so lucky.
 
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