-
WANTED: Happy members who like to discuss audio and other topics related to our interest. Desire to learn and share knowledge of science required. There are many reviews of audio hardware and expert members to help answer your questions. Click here to have your audio equipment measured for free!
Coronavirus (COVID-19): Global business, economics, and stock markets updates
- Thread starter Xulonn
- Start date
-
- Tags
- corona economy stock market
- Status
Dimitri
Senior Member
It's not, but people like to behave like it is.
Keeping calm and buying what you need now is a lot harder than joining the rest of the herd, panicking, jumping up and down chanting "the sky is falling".
Depending on how all this goes, stocking up on toilet paper is going to be of no use when the ones that stocked up on guns , ammo and vests start knocking on doors or knocking doors down.
- Joined
- Jun 5, 2016
- Messages
- 2,871
- Likes
- 4,667
What about retirees who need to withdraw a set amount from their IRAs etc to have funds to live?
What about commodities futures markets? Can those even be closed more than just momentarily without much of the world’s economy vomiting?
Besides, except for IPO or subsequent share dilutions, what does the stock market have to do with raising capital? It’s all gambling, basically.
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2016
- Messages
- 20,754
- Likes
- 37,593
All the people that age are going to succumb to the virus. Not a problem.
Sure they can be closed. They are just futures anyway. Not the actual stuff
My question is on the new unofficial market how many rolls of TP for a box of ammo?
No derivatives are where the gambling is. Someone here mentioned those are in the quadrillion dollar range. I don't happen to know though it is possible. Anyone know where the market is on various derivatives currently? What are the CDO's on TPBS's right now?
PS-in the aftermath of WWII silk stockings, chocolate and cigarettes were the medium of exchange for awhile. How was TP not a thing? Did Europeans and soldiers not need it then?
Last edited:
Last edited:
Dow Futures bouncing limit-down tonight...
I suspect part of that is it having reached the first of three major imaginary "support" levels I've conjured up...
I suspect part of that is it having reached the first of three major imaginary "support" levels I've conjured up...
As in the National Guard? The Local Police? The Army? They're all stocked up. Are they not?
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2016
- Messages
- 20,754
- Likes
- 37,593
I remember the 6300 level. I was about to put all available cash into several stocks as it hit 8000 knowing it couldn't stay down that low. As I was trying to decide it rapidly dropped to like 7000 which gave me pause. Now of course had I put in at 8000 and just waited it would have been fine, but it took months to get back to 8000 and I don't know how I would have felt (other than unhappy and nervous). All this stuff is easy once you see what happens.
To imagine what Yogi Berra might have said about markets:
"It's not a game, but it's a damn good one."
D
Deleted member 65
Guest
EU report from 2006 now being picked up by politicians & national economists.
”
The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe. A model-based assessment
By Lars Jonung and Werner Roeger,
DG ECFIN, European Commission, Brussels
Abstract: This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.
Key words: Pandemics, avian flu, Spanish influenza, Europe, EU. JEL classification: C5, E13 and I12.
Email address: [email protected] and [email protected]”
https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication708_en.pdf
”
The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe. A model-based assessment
By Lars Jonung and Werner Roeger,
DG ECFIN, European Commission, Brussels
Abstract: This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.
Key words: Pandemics, avian flu, Spanish influenza, Europe, EU. JEL classification: C5, E13 and I12.
Email address: [email protected] and [email protected]”
https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication708_en.pdf
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2016
- Messages
- 20,754
- Likes
- 37,593
I think I'll go watch Westworld now. Something to take my mind off of zombies, viruses, and financial calamity. Just dream of robots who are immune to viruses and don't need money taking over the world in place of us terrible humans.
D
Deleted member 65
Guest
Similar report as the EU report from CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Director U.S. Congress.
"Dear Senator Frist:
In response to your request, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has prepared an assessment of
the possible macroeconomic effects of an avian flu pandemic. The assessment concludes that a
pandemic involving a highly virulent flu strain (such as the one that caused the pandemic in 1918)
could produce a short-run impact on the worldwide economy similar in depth and duration to that of
an average postwar recession in the United States. Most of the pandemics of the past involved much
milder strains; an outbreak of that kind would have a much smaller economic impact, which might be
indistinguishable in the macroeconomic data.
... "
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/17544
"Dear Senator Frist:
In response to your request, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has prepared an assessment of
the possible macroeconomic effects of an avian flu pandemic. The assessment concludes that a
pandemic involving a highly virulent flu strain (such as the one that caused the pandemic in 1918)
could produce a short-run impact on the worldwide economy similar in depth and duration to that of
an average postwar recession in the United States. Most of the pandemics of the past involved much
milder strains; an outbreak of that kind would have a much smaller economic impact, which might be
indistinguishable in the macroeconomic data.
... "
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/17544
- Joined
- Jun 5, 2016
- Messages
- 2,871
- Likes
- 4,667
China, Iran, and Italy still have senior citizens.
"Futures" is a just a another way of saying "form sales contract." The point is, to some extent modern firms need to know their input costs to design products and plan production.
My view, conservative or even reactionary as it may be, is that even putting money into a broad based index fund is nothing more or less than gambling that the overall economy will grow. That often seems like a safe bet, but it is still a bet.
That kind of gambling contrasts with bringing a new idea to the table, building an organization, improving a property, growing stuff, or other such activities that can create wealth by adding real value.
OP
- Thread Starter
- #114
DOW futures this Monday morning were up four hundred points 20 minutes before the opening bell, but down to the low stop limit a few hours ago - what's happening to cause the big turn-around?
Edit: I see that the DJIA opened about 150 points down, and is jumping up and down a couple of hundred points from there.
I have no money in stocks, but in my lifetime, short-term traders have come to dominate over "investors", and I now view the stock market as a gambling casino. I find it fascinating to watch Wall Street as they react to U.S. government laws - and promises, laying down their bets for short term gains with no apparent concern about the long-term health of the economy.
And of course, the current U.S. president has always touted the "healthy" stock market as evidence of his financial prowess, and indeed, the "economy" is a big factor in determining if presidents will be successful in their campaigns to be re-elected to a second term. However, the coronavirus has, as they say, "thrown a big wrench into the works" with respect to the U.S. and the global economy. While hoping for minimal suffering and dying from Covid-19, I am very curious about the effect the pandemic will have on the complex web of the modern global economy.
I retired to a "developing" (second world?) country that has a heavy dependence on the global economy - both as a Latin American finance center, and home of the Panama Canal, which is vital to world commerce, and which generates about 10% of country's GDP.
Edit: I see that the DJIA opened about 150 points down, and is jumping up and down a couple of hundred points from there.
I have no money in stocks, but in my lifetime, short-term traders have come to dominate over "investors", and I now view the stock market as a gambling casino. I find it fascinating to watch Wall Street as they react to U.S. government laws - and promises, laying down their bets for short term gains with no apparent concern about the long-term health of the economy.
And of course, the current U.S. president has always touted the "healthy" stock market as evidence of his financial prowess, and indeed, the "economy" is a big factor in determining if presidents will be successful in their campaigns to be re-elected to a second term. However, the coronavirus has, as they say, "thrown a big wrench into the works" with respect to the U.S. and the global economy. While hoping for minimal suffering and dying from Covid-19, I am very curious about the effect the pandemic will have on the complex web of the modern global economy.
I retired to a "developing" (second world?) country that has a heavy dependence on the global economy - both as a Latin American finance center, and home of the Panama Canal, which is vital to world commerce, and which generates about 10% of country's GDP.
Last edited:
Fake news is happening - nothing good can happen to the economy for at least 12 next months.
Last edited:
OP
- Thread Starter
- #117
Indeed, Q. I see many intelligent and educated people fall prey to fake news and rumors - and I assume that included traders and big "investors".Fake news is happening - nothing good can happen to the economy for at least 12 months.
I have heard several rumors from Panamanian neighbors such as draconian measures such as the permissible that we can go out for shopping being regulated by the hour according to the last number on our national ID. In reality, no rules apply unless promulgated by the national ministry of health (MINSA), and even with my poor Spanish, I can go to the MINSA or other websites with Google Chrome Canary or other browsers and translate the current rules.
And the global and individual economies? I don't think anyone knows where they will end up, but I believe that permanent changes will occur, especially now that the U.S. is losing respect and it's position as a global leader in many areas.
I am curious - how do some of you from other countries view the U.S. and its leadership roles? (I am quite sure that the U.S. has not been respected as a leader in healthcare for its citizens for some time!)
If you are a long term investor I suggest you take a look into this chart (U.S. Recession index by Bloomberg):
Chances are that even without this corona thing recession would come and now I'm affraid it is inevitable. Investing before this chart drops below 100, after of course climbs to it first, is IMO suicidal.
Last edited:
Im not really liking the 3rd series so far..
Macdonalds are closed until further notice from 1900 today nationwide here in the UK.
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2016
- Messages
- 20,754
- Likes
- 37,593
I'm not happy with the 3rd season either.
- Status
Similar threads
- Poll
