Chip supply and geopolitics

[chnan]

by saying 'stone-age', you don't understand chip supply chain. taiwan chips rely on business model and cost-control, not technology. anyone in Japan, U.S., or Europe can buy the tools to produce 1nm chips.
U.S. decided to give up chip manufacturing. those who claims taiwan as the major singularity merely want taiwan to pay more (set up fabs in Az, buy more weapons..)
it is happening of course, but the chips are also getting more expensive, like grocery in wallmart

If one is really interested in the situations in taiwan strait, why not visit this spot? either PRC or taiwan

 

[valerianf]

Taiwan chip business rely on technology: they are the only ones be able to produce in volume the IC with the tiniest lithography.
Intel and the ICs manufacturing plans in the US are several generation behind, for now.
If Taiwan is lost, it will be a serious set back for the US mainly, and Europe too (they are further behind).
It is not an engineer alone behind a computer in the US that makes available a productions in millions units.
The production knowledge for high end ICs is in Deutch (ASML) for the UV machines, and in Taiwan (TSMC) for the mass production.
Our modern world full of electronics rely on these 2 companies.

 

[Oddball]

Taiwan chip business rely on technology: they are the only ones be able to produce in volume the IC with the tiniest lithography.
Intel and the ICs manufacturing plans in the US are several generation behind, for now.
If Taiwan is lost, it will be a serious set back for the US mainly, and Europe too (they are further behind).
It is not an engineer alone behind a computer in the US that makes available a productions in millions units.
The production knowledge for high end ICs is in Deutchland (ASML) for the UV machines, and in Taiwan (TSMC) for the mass production.
Our modern world full of electronics rely on these 2 companies.

ASML is Dutch not German. Otherwise, I can't really see a huge problem with chips not shipping from Taiwan for an ordinary person. I am absolutely happy with my iPhone 14 Pro Max and Mac M1 which are by now ancient tech.

How much are the AI chips would get hurt? Well that is their problem, as they just keep pushing for more and more from the chips.

Once China enters Taiwan, TCMC factories will self destruct, including its lines and IT/IP, according to the rumors. Obviously that might not be the case if negotiated otherwise.

 

[valerianf]

"ancient tech"
Sure, third world countries are relying on "mature" technology when advance societies are using top notch technologies.
It is obvious what will be the direction taken by the USA if Taiwan is successfully invaded.
By the way most of the mature technology ICs are already manufactured in China.
A technology embargo similar to the one about the rare earth materials will be a very easy move.
Look at the current Nexperia example.
I do not talk about Europe because they are already very late in technology (no AI chip, no GPU, no CPU, very few parallel processors).

 

[chnan]

I would not worried about chip not shipped from taiwan. however, most iphones and many correlated parts are from china fabs (foxconn). If china are in a Not-so-friendly status with U.S., after china claiming taiwan, then solor-pannels, tv, EV-batteries, mac products (including iphones), and GPU server should be like rare-earth. If I were Xi, I'd be happy to tax extra 150% to export. the most beautiful word...

 

[Oddball]

"ancient tech"
Sure, third world countries are relying on "mature" technology when advance societies are using top notch technologies.
It is obvious what will be the direction taken by the USA if Taiwan is successfully invaded.
By the way most of the mature technology ICs are already manufactured in China.
A technology embargo similar to the one about the rare earth materials will be a very easy move.
Look at the current Nexperia example.
I do not talk about Europe because they are already very late in technology (no AI chip, no GPU, no CPU, very few parallel processors).

Europe is definitely way to late in the overall game. But it still holds the key to further advancement. Try printing new chips without ASML tech. EU can restrict it to anyone, at their leisure, anytime they want.

And China already holds the choke over rare minerals, so while most of the tech is in the US, they definitely need to play a long game that will make all happy. Spiking it up as Trump does is not the long game. EU and Chinese have dealt with this shit many times before. When Trump is gone, US EU and China will be still around. 3 more years is pretty much nothing in the larger scheme of things.

 

[tineared]

In fact, what happens in the next three years is likely to be more consequential to human history than anything since WWII
This is not business as usual

 

[valerianf]

Here is a refreshed link about a 2023 event that happened in the Silicon Valley at the CIA initiative.
https://www.phonearena.com/news/what-cia-scenario-scared-tim-cook-_id178584
Nowadays the situation has worsened.

 

[RickS]

Locked due to political speculative nature.