Chip supply and geopolitics

[EERecordist]

I will start saying if our moderator wants to delete this as political or otherwise unsuited to ASR I would support that. If you want to lock replies that would be fine.

On the other hand, though many ASR community read the NY Times or have otherwise heard, others do not subscribe.

I started my career at a large semiconductor company, have friends in it today, and I follow the industry. I have been saying what is in the article privately for several years. Everything in audio today depends on Taiwan.

TL : DR When China invades Taiwan there will be a recession. 2027 is a forecast.

The looming Taiwan Chip Disaster that Silicon Valley has Long Ignored.
If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.

By Tripp Mickle
Tripp Mickle reviewed documents, visited chip plants and interviewed more than 60 people across the government and the tech industry.
Feb. 24, 2026
Updated 8:31 a.m. ET
Federal officials have for years tried to wean Silicon Valley from its dependence on Taiwan, an island democracy roughly the size of Maryland that makes 90 percent of the world’s high-end computer chips.

In secret briefings held in Washington and Silicon Valley, national security officials warned executives from companies like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm that China was making plans to retake Taiwan, which Beijing has long considered a breakaway territory. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the officials said, could choke the supply of computer chips made on the island and bring the U.S. tech industry to its knees.

The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored

If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.

www.nytimes.com

 

[tineared]

I will start saying if our moderator wants to delete this as political or otherwise unsuited to ASR I would support that. If you want to lock replies that would be fine.

On the other hand, though many ASR community read the NY Times or have otherwise heard, others do not subscribe.

I started my career at a large semiconductor company, have friends in it today, and I follow the industry. I have been saying what is in the article privately for several years. Everything in audio today depends on Taiwan.

TL : DR When China invades Taiwan there will be a recession. 2027 is a forecast.

The looming Taiwan Chip Disaster that Silicon Valley has Long Ignored.
If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.

By Tripp Mickle
Tripp Mickle reviewed documents, visited chip plants and interviewed more than 60 people across the government and the tech industry.
Feb. 24, 2026
Updated 8:31 a.m. ET
Federal officials have for years tried to wean Silicon Valley from its dependence on Taiwan, an island democracy roughly the size of Maryland that makes 90 percent of the world’s high-end computer chips.

In secret briefings held in Washington and Silicon Valley, national security officials warned executives from companies like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm that China was making plans to retake Taiwan, which Beijing has long considered a breakaway territory. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the officials said, could choke the supply of computer chips made on the island and bring the U.S. tech industry to its knees.

The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored

If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.

www.nytimes.com

I'm sure the NYT article is telling. Unfortunately it is paywalled.
A large part of President Biden's BBB Bill was to jump start this country's neglected chip infrastructure for just such an occurance.
Sadly, the welfare of the United States is now determined by one man who is wholly incapable of rational thought and has gutted the Bill.
He has done the same thing with renewable energy.
The pain that these and other decisions will cause the US is staggering and there will certainly be very dark days ahead.
I hope this thread can maintain some decorum and can survive

 

[EERecordist]

I'm sure the NYT article is telling. Unfortunately it is paywalled.

The link I posted should be free for all in the NY Times gift article program. I do think free expires after a time period. I have tested the link as not paid.

Are you having a problem reading it with a paywall? What country?

 

[tineared]

The first try I hit the paywall. Just now the page loaded. I'm in the US

Edit; I only got the first five paragraphs and it stopped loading.

2nd Edit: Now it's requiring me to register, which I don't care to do.

3rd Edit: Switched from Chrome to Brave and the NYT page is loading properly. ???

 

[MCH]

just today i was watching dave at EEVblog playing with a website that shows the supply chain of the ICs used in AI. Nothing new but interesting to see all together: chips from taiwan, machines to make chips from the netherlands, photoresist from Japan, mirrors from Germany, glass from France, Neon from Ukraine, quartz from US, copper from Chile and a never ending etc. of bottlenecks and dependencies

here it is:

AI Supply Chain — Deep Map v5

 

[Salt]

Clicked the bait just at this moment and it was available (de).

 

[Salt]

just today i was watching dave at EEVblog playing with a website that shows the supply chain of the ICs used in AI. Nothing new but interesting to see all together: chips from taiwan, machines to make chips from the netherlands, photoresist from Japan, mirrors from Germany, glass from France, Neon from Ukraine, quartz from US, copper from Chile and a never ending etc. of bottlenecks and dependencies

Those who lived without Silizium until now will survive in the future ... call it sarcasm or estimation, it's your individual choice

 

[EERecordist]

just today i was watching dave at EEVblog playing with a website that shows the supply chain of the ICs used in AI. Nothing new but interesting to see all together: chips from taiwan, machines to make chips from the netherlands, photoresist from Japan, mirrors from Germany, glass from France, Neon from Ukraine, quartz from US, copper from Chile and a never ending etc. of bottlenecks and dependencies

Yes, the AI boom has supply chain vulnerability. A lot of VC investment will be wiped out. VC is 10+:1, so they can afford it.

 

[EERecordist]

just today i was watching dave at EEVblog playing with a website that shows the supply chain of the ICs used in AI. Nothing new but interesting to see all together: chips from taiwan, machines to make chips from the netherlands, photoresist from Japan, mirrors from Germany, glass from France, Neon from Ukraine, quartz from US, copper from Chile and a never ending etc. of bottlenecks and dependencies

here it is:

AI Supply Chain — Deep Map v5

Thanks. I enjoy EEVBlog. I had not found that post. That is the value of the ASR network.

The EEVBlog supply chain post is

 

[mhardy6647]

Not to mention the implications for the DAC industry!

 

[tineared]

Not to mention the implications for the DAC industry!

The DAC industry will be located in Phil's garage in Escondido
Just don't test them...

 

[Power Pop 23]

I will start saying if our moderator wants to delete this as political or otherwise unsuited to ASR I would support that. If you want to lock replies that would be fine.

On the other hand, though many ASR community read the NY Times or have otherwise heard, others do not subscribe.

I started my career at a large semiconductor company, have friends in it today, and I follow the industry. I have been saying what is in the article privately for several years. Everything in audio today depends on Taiwan.

TL : DR When China invades Taiwan there will be a recession. 2027 is a forecast.

The looming Taiwan Chip Disaster that Silicon Valley has Long Ignored.
If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.

By Tripp Mickle
Tripp Mickle reviewed documents, visited chip plants and interviewed more than 60 people across the government and the tech industry.
Feb. 24, 2026
Updated 8:31 a.m. ET
Federal officials have for years tried to wean Silicon Valley from its dependence on Taiwan, an island democracy roughly the size of Maryland that makes 90 percent of the world’s high-end computer chips.

In secret briefings held in Washington and Silicon Valley, national security officials warned executives from companies like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm that China was making plans to retake Taiwan, which Beijing has long considered a breakaway territory. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the officials said, could choke the supply of computer chips made on the island and bring the U.S. tech industry to its knees.

The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored

If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.

www.nytimes.com

The same day, The New York Times notes a report saying a purge of the military in China runs deeper than previously known and may affect its capabilities (gift link):

Xi’s Purges of China’s Military Run Deep, New Study Shows

Around 100 senior officers have been sidelined or vanished since 2022, hollowing out the top ranks and raising questions about the army’s capabilities.

www.nytimes.com

 

[tineared]

The same day, The New York Times notes a report saying a purge of the military in China runs deeper than previously known and may affect its capabilities (gift link):

Xi’s Purges of China’s Military Run Deep, New Study Shows

Around 100 senior officers have been sidelined or vanished since 2022, hollowing out the top ranks and raising questions about the army’s capabilities.

www.nytimes.com

It's what all the dictators are doing this year...
Loyalty before competency

 

[sam_adams]

We don't need the Chinese to make what would sure to be the largest military blunder in wold history to create a crippling semiconductor chip shortage. We would just need an epoxy resin factory to go up in flames, again.:

Sumitomo Chemical Company

Japan Factory for Making Chip Material Destroyed (Published 1993)

www.nytimes.com

Renesas

Factory blaze adds to computer chip supply crisis

The Renesas fire is set to make it even more difficult for car-makers to buy the chips they need.

www.bbc.com

 

[Joe Smith]

Yeah, I read that article yesterday. A scary issue for sure. The article noted the massive GDP hit that would occur to China if they did invade and shut down production in Taiwan - nearly as large as the hit to the US, for instance. Perhaps that will have a chilling effect? I certainly hope so.

In the US, regardless of party, both sides have clearly neglected the issue for years and new production locales can not be achieved quickly, that's for sure.

It's a mess.

 

[respice finem]

Yeah, I read that article yesterday. A scary issue for sure. The article noted the massive GDP hit that would occur to China if they did invade and shut down production in Taiwan - nearly as large as the hit to the US, for instance. Perhaps that will have a chilling effect? I certainly hope so.

In the US, regardless of party, both sides have clearly neglected the issue for years and new production locales can not be achieved quickly, that's for sure.

It's a mess.

Same goes for the EU. "Sunshine economy" with outsourcing nearly all production was nice and profitable, but everyone forgot the "Lenin's noose" side of it. Now the "West" must scramble to get, at least partly, out of it. The chance I see: The dependencies are mutual, and the Chinese aren't dumb.

 

[valerianf]

The question is when China will attack/make a blocus to Taiwan.
Working as an EE since a long time I know that it will be the good time for retirement
Stupid greed in the US and ignorance in the EU (civil servant administrated) have given to China the low end IC manufacturing chain.
Look what happened last year with Nexperia: only 1 chinese CEO bought a dutch company and move it to China. Then the car manufacturing plants were in geoparty all around the world!
But with Taiwan we are speaking of the most advanced ICs.
China has just to obliterate/incapacitate Taiwan and they will control the electronics for quite the whole world.
Manufacturing plants just built in the US are 2 generations late and there is no packaging plant for now.
ICs manufactured in the US need to be sent to Asia for packaging.

If China control Taiwan and the South China Sea, USA and Europe may go back to the stone age.

 

[EERecordist]

There is at least one report from a drinking buddy of Xi at a younger age that he does not fear war and sees it as necessary for China's advancement. That is opposite of Deng's lay low and focus inward philosophy. Further in personal conversations a retired military person in my circle, they have advised Taiwan on a defense that makes the island difficult and costly to invade.

The primary source for Xi's opinion is Professor Yuan Hongbing you can look up. We do not know why Xi is removing senior military commanders. But one reason is that they may be telling him things he does not want to hear about invading Taiwan. Xi has never personally been involved in war.

 

[Oddball]

I don't personally believe that China will invade Taiwan in the foreseeable future - until Taiwan's technology is not exported or matched by others. The stakes are too high and if there is one super power in the world playing the long game, that is China. Fundamental shift towards the invasion would require coup in China and establishing a new leadership with short term goals, which is opposite what seems to be happening in Beijing. Another possibility would be total disarray in the world - something like Putin invading EU and/or civil war in America, both of which are unlikely scenarios at this point.

US beating the war drums is not reliable information. US apparently wants to be in the soft state of war with all nations, and "humiliate" world powers like EU or China. I wonder what is going on with NY Times - seems they converted to another religion to survive.

There are many doomsday scenarios flying around as people are scared with current instability of the world order. This one is not actually the worst one, at least IMO, which obviously counts for less than electricity spent on this post .

 

[valerianf]

The longer Xi stays in power and makes clean up in the PLA stronger is the chance that China attacks Taiwan. The PLA is becoming a similar army to North Korea:: only Yes men are staying in place.
Will Trumps's America be able to deter Xi?
If Taiwan is incapacited the Electronics will come back to the stone edge in the US and Europe.