But in the analog domain the speed changes smoothly over a very long period (a half turn of the vinyl)
Not true at all. Analogue speed variations are all over the shop in rate of change. Wow is low frequency variations and flutter are higher frequency variations.
The motor spindle bearings, spindle pulley eccentricities/surface finish on a belt drive all contribute to flutter, as does cartridge, arm and arm bearings.
Record spindle, platter run out/eccentricities all contribute to the Wow component, as does overall long term motor rotational stability.
In my testing over the decades, belt drive turntables often have high Wow and high Flutter. It is very rare in my experience to see high flutter in quality direct drives.