Are you buying now because you anticipate higher prices?

[Timcognito]

Separate from the possibilities are the probabilities.

THIS^^^ history and virtually every economist willing to ply their trade and speak publicly. Tariffs applied with surgical precision can be helpful against unprofitable market manipulation of discrete segments but the current scorched earth approach will surely lead to scarcity of goods, higher prices and a lot of global ill will with allies.

 

[JeffS7444]

U.S. Americans wanting an E1DA product will have to be patient, as like many other sellers on AliExpress, he's suspended USA shipping. So have Anbernic, who specialize in handheld gaming systems. Amazon USA still shows some limited availability on some, but not all, products. But prices are sometimes 20% higher (or more!) than they were weeks or months ago. And when pre-tariff stocks are depleted, who knows what will happen. Who cares if tariffs are halved to 72.5% tomorrow, it might as well be 1000%.

Per a story on Axios dated 23 April, the CEOs of Walmart, Target and Home Depot expect the first effects to be felt at the store level in about two weeks, in the form of higher prices and emptier shelves.

In this interview on Ezra Klein's NYT podcast, Thomas Friedman reveals how PRC's best manufacturers became ultra-competitive by first competing against one another.

Getting back to audio, it strikes me as kind of ironic that Texas Instruments amplifier ICs are mostly appreciated in China. Ignoring tariffs for the moment, if I wanted to buy a power amplifier today, Benchmark might be one possibility, but the various other brands built around Hypex modules or TPA3255 amplifier ICs might be more appealing in terms of price, packaging and features. And then there's Schiit: Some good-looking speaker amps there, but they're Class AB, so lower power and bulkier. When you need just two channels of amplification, it might not be a big deal, but when you're talking 4 or more, it's harder to ignore.

 

[D2013]

To add to what @GXAlan shared

I see the Tariffs trying to accomplish different things depending on the country they are being applied to. Some I think are strait up smoke and mirrors to distract from The primary goal, applying extreme economic pressure to China. Specifically Xi Jinping & the CCP hardliners. Imo most Chinese citizens want what most normal people want, to live a long enjoyable life, but its been clear that the CCP leadership has wanted far more than that for a long time.

Xi Jinping Dec 31st 2024

"The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification," Xi said in a speech televised on China's state broadcaster CCTV.

In his New Year's speech last year, Xi said China's "reunification" with Taiwan is inevitable, and that people on both sides "should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china...-chinas-reunification-with-taiwan-2024-12-31/


We live in a digital age, and Taiwan dominates the semi conductor industry. The following graph is from 2021, but the numbers are all but identical today.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/2-c...rld-depends-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors.html

If the CCP gained control of Taiwan, it would have extreme leverage over almost every human being. Even a minor war in Taiwan would likely have severe consequences for the semiconductor industry and humanity.

The question that needs asked, is how to deter the CCP from going after Taiwan, considering is controls a large military, that is nuclear armed.

For a potential answer we can look to the past. In the 80's Japan was booming thanks to it's export driven economic model. At one point it was predicted to overtake the united states as the worlds largest economy. To combat this, the US and a few allies coerced Japan into signing the Plaza Accord in 1985. While it didn't directly accomplish it's stated goal of reducing the US/Japan Trade Deficit, it is widely considered to be the trigger, that slowed, and ultimately stifled Japan's economic growth. This lead to what is commonly referred to as the lost decades, and is something Japan still hasn't fully recovered from.

Source: https://www.premia-partners.com/insight/trade-war


GDP

Source: https://dupuyinstitute.org/2018/10/23/where-did-japan-go/



The US can't do the same thing to China that it did to Japan, for numerous reasons, but the extreme tariffs in the view of some might have the same long term affect. China's economic growth, has slowed over the last few years, it has a real estate industry in crisis, and a few other self inflicted issues that could make it a lot more vulnerable to economic pressure than it was in the past.

 

[Timcognito]

... (Perhaps you know the story about persuading a stubborn jackass to move using a 2 by 4? The punchline is, "First you need to get his attention.")

That doesn't seem to align with historical review of trade wars which almost all lead to recessions, the '70s oil embargo for instance. Again possibilities vs probabilities. Ignoring the recovery from political mistrust from allies, recessions take economic growth and employment down for long periods.

 

[Muddywaters]

That doesn't seem to align with historical review of trade wars which almost all lead to recessions, the '70s oil embargo for instance. Again possibilities vs probabilities. Ignoring the recovery from political mistrust from allies, recessions take economic growth and employment down for long periods.
View attachment 446709

Glad you used the qualifier “almost”. I missed the last recession when the current president enacted tariffs and the recent past administration continued them? Economists have correctly predicted 22 of the last 7 recession’s to paraphrase an old saw.

*edit to add a word > last

 

[RickS]

Please watch your references to politicians with any strongly worded commentary. This is against ASR policy and often will result in a post being deleted. This also extends to targeting political parties or any specific group in a similar fashion. Moderators cannot fact check every post, so if you think it is impolite, save it for another forum. Additionally, if you reply to this sort of post before it is deleted, the offending portion or entirety may be removed from yours for completeness.

There have only been a few recent cases where I have had to apply this policy but really prefer to avoid deleting anyone's content. Please be considerate. Thanks!

 

[tomtoo]

Tariffs and Class D chipamps.

TI exports chips to china. China adds some caps , inductors, potis , case..bla..bla.
USA wants more money for imports.
China sells less in USA.
TI sells less to china.

US customer pais.
1) TI chips get more expensive couse less needet.
2) Transport costs get more expensive on the ship
3) The import tax
4) TI pays less Taxes
5) more unimploiment at TI
Plus plus plus

 

[Cogito]

At 60 years old, I'm pretty much done buying gear as the system I have is pretty much endgame for me. I'll only buy to replace broken or worn-out gear.

 

[JustJones]

I've ended all discretionary spending for the duration.

 

[bravomail]

If you have GAS and money - nothing will stop you, not even tariffs.
I considered of what do I need - I have double of everything, after upgraditis - DACs, amps, headphones. So, even if I go poor, I won't need anything for some time.

 

[Chr1]

Tariffs, phooey...

Been hoarding audio gear for years now, so even the zombie apocalypse won't stop the music.

They'll have to prise my Topping remote from my cold, dead hands.
(Prior to chowing my brain.)

 

[CedarX]

"With that regards, 2 options will happen starting tomorrow:
a) We put all shipments to USA on hold till the situation makes more sense. We're not shipping life saving equipment so maybe best we wait this out so we can save you cost.
b) We pre-apply duties to your order starting from April 25th. It might be ok for small purchase but not for larger as budgets are tights. If tariffs get modified, we could always reimburse the extra duties?"

MiniDSP b) would be consistent with AliExpress Customer Support answer when I asked about “How the (US) tariffs would impact my current and future orders placed through AE?”.
Response: “All of it is the responsibility of the seller, then later the seller will contact you.”
So, my take is AE is “washing their hand” and will let their stores deal with the tariffs, either factoring them in the prices, or through surcharges to “unblock” packages stuck at Customs. Likely outcome: “lost” shipments…

 

[Thomas Savage]

Flowers need not be sacrificed on my behalf thanks.

The underlying question(s) are not "verboten", but tariff posts do need to be substantive and not politically charged. I know ASR has members on many sides of the tariff debate. While some might see the tariffs as 2 dimensional, as soon as you consider members from outside the US, they are clearly multi-dimensional.

We have some very smart members and would welcome if someone can make any strategic sense of these tariffs. In any case, suspect this may be a while as would need to first have a known set of them, and the tariffs are clearly anything but stable currently. @GXAlan hosted a thread on the new tariffs that was open for about 2 months. I just reviewed it (along with all moderated posts) and there was not a single post that articulated how more tariffs would benefit the US strategically. At this point, if such a plan existed, expect it would have been shared months ago.

I plan to keep this thread open as long as it is a productive exchange. Thanks to all members who have and will contribute constructively!

There's a high tariff on ASR moderators , that's one tariff we can all help to reduce .

Every little helps ..

 

[PristineSound]

Below is an email I got from Apos.

This is such a cluster f*ck sh*t chaos.

I was gonna get a Denafrips Athena, but I have no damn idea what's going to happen, will I get a tax bill from Uncle Sam for 145%? So just sitting on the sidelines. . .I guess I just have to wait on Washington to fold like a lawn chair when they get called out on their bluff but only after destroying consumer confidence and small businesses alike.

Hi everyone,

I want to take this opportunity to give a quick update to the community on how tariffs might impact Apos’ operations. This is a forward looking update and it doesn’t affect anything currently.

As of now, there are no changes in prices (unless already announced) or timelines of shipments of orders, until otherwise communicated on the product page. Backordered products are marked as such on Apos, and we always include a note with an expected shipping date.

When I say that this is a forward looking update, I mean it pertains to the upcoming change at customs starting May 2nd. De Minimis exemptions for goods shipping from China are going away on May 2nd. This will result in a steep increase in the volume of shipments needing to be processed by US Customs. We will not know the reality until after May 2nd, but our current expectations are that there will be a backlog of shipments at the ports, resulting in delays of shipment delivery, and, in some unfortunate cases, loss of packages.

During this ever-changing situation, we are making sure to communicate with the community and our brand partners to keep everyone apprised. We will continue to post blog updates as and when required. Emails will also be sent out whenever a Community Update is published. In the short term, we are also implementing a post purchase email to provide new community members access to this update along with a reminder that they can reach out to our Support Team at any time to check on the status of their order.

Quick note on Apos : We have been working on a lot of great products within the Apos platform in the background and some of these have been affected by the tariffs. However, we are still moving ahead. We expect to bring ‘cool’, ‘valuable’, and ‘lovable’ products/experiences (your words, not mine ) to the community this year.

Please feel free to email me in case you have any questions regarding this update at [email protected]. If you are looking for status update on your order, please email [email protected].

Thank you!

 

[MattHooper]

At 60 years old, I'm pretty much done buying gear as the system I have is pretty much endgame for me. I'll only buy to replace broken or worn-out gear.

Quitter!

 

[EERecordist]

To law, there are at least 3 factors:

The end of the de minimus exemption. De minimus shipments were defined as under $800. I believe they are ending that exemption.

How to handle US-China tariffs and the end of de minimis - Avalara

President Trump is imposing new tariffs on China and working to eliminate China's duty-free de minimis exemption. Learn how businesses can handle tariff changes.

www.avalara.com

The second governing item is the HTSUS tariff code of the item and the corresponding duty by country. Consult the blogs of the customs law firms or https://hts.usitc.gov/. The tariffs change often.

The implementation. The receiving customs agent has to interpret the law.

 

[Mort]

I wonder what happens if you don't pay the tariff? Do they send the product back to miniDSP?

That's why DHL stopped delivering and FedEx requires an account. If it remains unpaid it'll eventually get destroyed at the border. No it won't go back.

 

[Snoopy]

Fioo will also increase prices by 40% only in the US .

 

[Mort]

Moondrop 30%

 

[Cogito]

Quitter!

Hell, I don't even buy green bananas anymore!