@GXAlan hosted a thread on the new tariffs that was open for about 2 months. I just reviewed it (along with all moderated posts) and
there was not a single post that articulated how more tariffs would benefit the US strategically. At this point, if such a plan existed, expect it would have been shared months ago.
Only because you dragged/tagged me into this…
The reason there was no post articulating the possible benefit of tariffs in that thread was that everyone was following the no politics rule and focusing on practical non-political information related to buying audio gear.
To provide a thought experiment…
China’s ambitious “around 5%” growth target this year increasingly has a Donald Trump problem. Every time the US president raises tariffs for mainland goods — 145%, at least for now — he makes it harder for Xi Jinping to avoid Beijing’s fate in 2022 and 1990. Those are the only two times in the...
asiatimes.com
While it is true that we US consumers pay tariffs on goods coming in, the claim that other countries are paying for the tariffs is not as far fetched when you step back and think about what a “stimulus” actually means.
We laugh at the idea of U.S. making Canada a 51st state or acquiring Greenland from Denmark. The Canadians and Greenlanders are perfectly happy being separate from the U.S.
The People’s Republic of China is actively intent on acquiring Taiwan and has used military force (encirclement, live fire exercises) in demonstrating the seriousness of their intent.
Every yuan that the PRC is spending to support its domestic economy as “stimulus” in response to U.S. tariffs and in particular toward factories that used to supply US with low cost goods, is yuan that is not applied toward building toward the officially stated military readiness goal of invading Taiwan by 2027.
Is it possible that the Chinese factories that were making random consumer goods for SHEIN will pivot to military production as a result of the stimulus? Sure. Paratroopers need parachutes to be sewn. And that would accelerate the outcome you are trying to prevent. So it could easily backfire resulting in a worse future.
If you want to understand a debate, you need to understand all perspectives and you need to understand the branching points. You need to see all the possibilities.
Separate from the possibilities are the probabilities.
That’s different.
An open minded Democrat should recognize that the Republican plan could possibly work out well, but opine that the probability of success is too vanishingly small and a high probability of catastrophic disaster means the current path is wrong.
An open minded Republican should recognize that the Democrats concern about a catastrophic global depression is a valid, one of many worst case scenarios, but opine that the risk of continuing with the status quo and consequences are even greater risks than the current high risk action plan.
The opinion part is politics. You won’t be able to convince the other side that your assessment of probability is the correct one.
However, the recognition of all possibilities is science.
(And to follow ASR rules about posting YouTube links, that is a clip from the Avengers movie, where Dr. Strange looks at the future and all the possible future timelines.)