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All About UFO's

the Y2K tech doomsday predictors weren't tarred and feathered, for example.
I'm not sure who you mean here. It was a potentially serious problem, with a sufficiently high profile to be taken seriously by companies. People put in the work to make sure the potential problems were fully understood, and either fixed or mitigated. Usually this happened without a great deal of fanfare, so only those directly involved were aware of it. The lack of major problems showed that the planning worked, not that there wasn't a problem in the first place.
 
I'd say the probability of life existing elsewhere in the Universe is most likely 100% given the expanse and the trillions of possible permutations to make it viable. Whether we'd recognize it as such is a different matter.

And I'd rank the probability of hyper-advanced civilizations to just travel around for millions of lightyears to just buzz around meaninglessly as extremely low for now... but hey. It's an unimaginably vast universe and stuff happens. I don't understand many things that are going on in our own planet, so I shall tread lightly when it comes to myself putting in extraterrestrial life's shoes. :-)

We don't know their motivation which is moot, other possibilities exist, from man made tech, to a wide range of other possibilities covered at length in this thread. What we do know is there's something buzzing around our air space in need to study and explanation.
 
I'm not sure who you mean here. It was a potentially serious problem, with a sufficiently high profile to be taken seriously by companies. People put in the work to make sure the potential problems were fully understood, and either fixed or mitigated. Usually this happened without a great deal of fanfare, so only those directly involved were aware of it. The lack of major problems showed that the planning worked, not that there wasn't a problem in the first place.
There were several charlatans publishing books and doing the rounds on TV shows. They knew nothing about potential issues, just fear mongering. Normal tech people like us just made sure our products worked, it was as easy as setting up a lab environment and simulate the transition. In my direct tech environment, there were 2 people that betrayed every professional principle to do that... and retired with the proceeds -in one case, guy was on Oprah- and the other returned to normal professional life even though we cracked jokes about him.
It was never a serious issue, zero outages were reported, and software/firmware updates were minimal, and the Y2K transition was part of every system test since the early 90s.
 
We don't know their motivation which is moot, other possibilities exist, from man made tech, to a wide range of other possibilities covered at length in this thread. What we do know is there's something buzzing around our air space in need to study and explanation.
Even if we throw out everything else there are still the USN videos. The USN say 'we don't know what it is.'

That rules out that it's a bird, it's a plane, it's superman. So what is it? ' It's Aliens' is a huge reach and I'm highly sceptical, but however you frame it, there's still unanswered questions.

It does confuse me as to why that is being studiously ignored by some of the contributors here.
 
Even if we throw out everything else there are still the USN videos. The USN say 'we don't know what it is.'

That rules out that it's a bird, it's a plane, it's superman. So what is it? ' It's Aliens' is a huge reach and I'm highly sceptical, but however you frame it, there's still unanswered questions.

It does confuse me as to why that is being studiously ignored by some of the contributors here.
The problem with taking anything from the military at face value is that secrecy and deception are part of their job description. That includes some branches of the military not telling other branches everything, and conducting tests on troops without telling them. The secrecy means we can't know the capabilities and limitations of the hardware used to take the videos, radar images or whatever else they provide, so can't be definitive on whether other explanations like the Mick West ones fit. We can't be sure of what other aircraft were in the area at the time because something trying to be stealthy isn't going to be visible in public records, whether it's friendly or not. We can't be sure that some branch of the military doesn't know what it is, either because it's one of theirs, or because they don't want the enemy to know they know about it. And we can't be sure they haven't cooked up a convincing fake as cover for something secret. Plus because the military isn't monolithic more than one of these can be true at the same time - the part releasing the video may truly not know what it is while some other part does, but isn't telling anyone, and a third part is using it as cover for something else.

This also comes back to the earlier points on disclosure to congress or the public - there is an inherent tension between the need for military to keep some things absolutely secret and the need for effective oversight. If it gets out that you can intercept and decrypt enemy communications they'll change something and you'll be back to square one - it's a necessary secret that you go to extreme lengths to protect (Operation Mincemeat etc.) On the other hand if it's something the enemy knows, or that you need them to know (a deterrent is only a deterrent if the other side knows about it!) then there's no problem making it public. And a whole sliding scale in between, with specific information varying with threat level.

The way this usually works is that some subset of people that are trusted by both military and non-military get given the oversight task and can be trusted to keep the secrets. It only works when there's trust from both sides, and no part of either side is playing the system. At various times there have been politicians the military does not trust with secrets, either because they are suspect themselves or because someone close to them is, personally or professionally. Equally from time to time some part of the military is less than forthcoming about something that doesn't need to be secret because it's something they shouldn't have been doing (Oliver North?) or because it's just embarrassing. Politicians demanding an answer in a public session that they know can't be given because it's a secret would be another example - the person being questioned is caught between opposing obligations, to keep the matter secret but not to mislead congress for example. It gets tricky when it's something that the military thinks should be secret, but civilians think they have a right to know...
 
The problem with taking anything from the military at face value is that secrecy and deception are part of their job description. That includes some branches of the military not telling other branches everything, and conducting tests on troops without telling them. The secrecy means we can't know the capabilities and limitations of the hardware used to take the videos, radar images or whatever else they provide, so can't be definitive on whether other explanations like the Mick West ones fit. We can't be sure of what other aircraft were in the area at the time because something trying to be stealthy isn't going to be visible in public records, whether it's friendly or not. We can't be sure that some branch of the military doesn't know what it is, either because it's one of theirs, or because they don't want the enemy to know they know about it. And we can't be sure they haven't cooked up a convincing fake as cover for something secret. Plus because the military isn't monolithic more than one of these can be true at the same time - the part releasing the video may truly not know what it is while some other part does, but isn't telling anyone, and a third part is using it as cover for something else.

This also comes back to the earlier points on disclosure to congress or the public - there is an inherent tension between the need for military to keep some things absolutely secret and the need for effective oversight. If it gets out that you can intercept and decrypt enemy communications they'll change something and you'll be back to square one - it's a necessary secret that you go to extreme lengths to protect (Operation Mincemeat etc.) On the other hand if it's something the enemy knows, or that you need them to know (a deterrent is only a deterrent if the other side knows about it!) then there's no problem making it public. And a whole sliding scale in between, with specific information varying with threat level.

The way this usually works is that some subset of people that are trusted by both military and non-military get given the oversight task and can be trusted to keep the secrets. It only works when there's trust from both sides, and no part of either side is playing the system. At various times there have been politicians the military does not trust with secrets, either because they are suspect themselves or because someone close to them is, personally or professionally. Equally from time to time some part of the military is less than forthcoming about something that doesn't need to be secret because it's something they shouldn't have been doing (Oliver North?) or because it's just embarrassing. Politicians demanding an answer in a public session that they know can't be given because it's a secret would be another example - the person being questioned is caught between opposing obligations, to keep the matter secret but not to mislead congress for example. It gets tricky when it's something that the military thinks should be secret, but civilians think they have a right to know...
Completely agree with all of that but we don't know that 'secret project' or 'deliberate disinformation' are the explanation, although they could be.

That's why I'm saying there are unanswered questions with this topic. Yes it is quite possible we will never get the answers, especially if the answer is secret project or a disinformation strategy.

Aliens should be at the bottom of the 'possible explanation' list but I don't - unlike others - see a valid, logical argument that rules out that explanation 100 percent.
 
Even if we throw out everything else there are still the USN videos. The USN say 'we don't know what it is.'

That rules out that it's a bird, it's a plane, it's superman. So what is it? ' It's Aliens' is a huge reach and I'm highly sceptical, but however you frame it, there's still unanswered questions.

It does confuse me as to why that is being studiously ignored by some of the contributors here.
I think most everyone would like the “truth” to be reveal. What critical thinkers recoil from are the purveyors of innuendo, sensationalism, and unsubstantiated or debunked observations who repeatedly present their claims as scientific evidence. In order to get to the “truth” it is necessary to separate evidence based findings from the emotions and motivations of people who either have an agenda or simply want to confirm what they believe or want to believe.

There are innumerable possible explanations for the observed phenomena. ETs are just one of the many possibilities but seem to have a lopsided appeal to a portion of the population. They are not being “studiously ignored”. But neither are they given special weight within the sober and objective analyses that are consistent with established scientific methodologies. Some of these purveyors who do not adhere to widely established and accepted scientific methods seem to feel that they are the victims of undue ridicule or bias.

These criticisms of scientific methodology are not unique to people interested in potential ET phenomena. It exists in many modern issues of scientific controversy such as climate change, public health policy, and cosmology.
 
I think most everyone would like the “truth” to be reveal. What critical thinkers recoil from are the purveyors of innuendo, sensationalism, and unsubstantiated or debunked observations who repeatedly present their claims as scientific evidence. In order to get to the “truth” it is necessary to separate evidence based findings from the emotions and motivations of people who either have an agenda or simply want to confirm what they believe or want to believe.

There are innumerable possible explanations for the observed phenomena. ETs are just one of the many possibilities but seem to have a lopsided appeal to a portion of the population. They are not being “studiously ignored”. But neither are they given special weight within the sober and objective analyses that are consistent with established scientific methodologies. Some of these purveyors who do not adhere to widely established and accepted scientific methods seem to feel that they are the victims of undue ridicule or bias.

These criticisms of scientific methodology are not unique to people interested in potential ET phenomena. It exists in many modern issues of scientific controversy such as climate change, public health policy, and cosmology.
Of course all that is true but none of it is relevant to the point I was making in my post that you've quoted.
 
Of course all that is true but none of it is relevant to the point I was making in my post that you've quoted.
My post was relevant with counter-evidence to your post, please see
 
Even if we throw out everything else there are still the USN videos. The USN say 'we don't know what it is.'

If it were just the vids, I'd be fine with the responses to them as birds, balloons, etc. Context is really what matter: Seen by 4 of the top fighter pilots on the planet, tracked by the most sophisticated radar in those fighter jets we have, corroborated by multiple warships using the most sophisticated radar we have and confirmed by the radar operators themselves, tracked on FLR systems, caught on camera as the USN vids you mentioned, listed as genuinely anomalous by USN. One of many events over 80 years. You have someone like a Mick West focusing on a narrow aspect of the event, ignoring the larger context, which is what matters.

A singular vid can be compelling, but without other lines of evidence (number and quality of whitnesses, vids from another angle, other sensor data, etc) and such, it may be interesting and left as anomolous, but that's it. In those rare events where all the above comes together as it did for the USN event, then it's confirmed something there in need of study and further research.

That rules out that it's a bird, it's a plane, it's superman. So what is it? ' It's Aliens' is a huge reach and I'm highly sceptical, but however you frame it, there's still unanswered questions.

It does confuse me as to why that is being studiously ignored by some of the contributors here.
Cognitive dissonance
Ignorance
Arrogance
Dunning-Kruger effect
Fear
 
My post was relevant with counter-evidence to your post, please see
My post was not postulating that 'It's aliens.' So no counter-evidence was necessary.
 
My post was not postulating that 'It's aliens.' So no counter-evidence was necessary.
The fact such posters don't realize not one of us here who have been openly discussing the topic of UAP as a serious issue worthy of open investigation and disclosure, ever claimed evidence of aliens. Again, why that's so difficult for some to get further confirms active denial of facts and realities. Aliens are being claimed as the source of some events by a long list of highly placed and qualified people to be sure, can't be dismissed, only one of various possibilities covered here.
 
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The fact such posters don't realize not one of us here who have been openly discussing the topic of UAP as a serious issue worthy of open investigation and disclosure, ever claimed evidence of aliens. Again, why that's so difficult for some to get further confirms active denial of facts and realities. Aliens are being claimed as the source of some events by a long list of highly placed and qualified people to be sure, can't be dismissed, only one of various possibilities covered here.
Exactly. 'UAP' does not equal flying saucer from Mars.

As far as the alien-related congressional testimony goes though, I have the same issue that others have raised in that (unless I have missed something) it is all hearsay. Not one person has testified to say 'Yes I've been in the hanger and seen the sports model' or similar. Just 'I know someone who has.'

Not good enough when the premise is something so improbable.

I would put elaborate disinformation programme or secret tech much higher on the probability list. Note that the 'tech' is not necessarily advanced propulsion systems but could be something that simulates the appearance of that, and fools the radar also. Being tested on their own side, without their knowledge.
 
I would put elaborate disinformation programme or secret tech much higher on the probability list. Note that the 'tech' is not necessarily advanced propulsion systems but could be something that simulates the appearance of that, and fools the radar also. Being tested on their own side, without their knowledge.
Indeed. Folks cite lots of rhetorical tactics and sociological phenomena in this thread "by name"*, but, for some reason, Occam's Razor almost never comes up.

__________
* ad hominem, Dunning-Kruger, und so weiter...
 
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Exactly. 'UAP' does not equal flying saucer from Mars.

As far as the alien-related congressional testimony goes though, I have the same issue that others have raised in that (unless I have missed something) it is all hearsay. Not one person has testified to say 'Yes I've been in the hanger and seen the sports model' or similar. Just 'I know someone who has.'

Some testifying right now (per link above) claim they stood right in front of "craft" within short distances, demonstrating highly unusual behaviors, so first person experiences. There's no lack of them either, but so far, they have been lower level in terms of rank or access and such. Of course Commander Fravor, and co, was first person experience who by any account, highly credible as an example.


Not good enough when the premise is something so improbable.

I would put elaborate disinformation programme or secret tech much higher on the probability list. Note that the 'tech' is not necessarily advanced propulsion systems but could be something that simulates the appearance of that, and fools the radar also. Being tested on their own side, without their knowledge.

Can't be ruled out, and may also be one part of it, but not all of it, hence the hard push for disclosure, which is being resisted bigly; "the lady doth protest too much, methinks" ;)
 
Some testifying right now (per link above) claim they stood right in front of "craft" within short distances, demonstrating highly unusual behaviors, so first person experiences. There's no lack of them either, but so far, they have been lower level in terms of rank or access and such. Of course Commander Fravor, and co, was first person experience who by any account, highly credible as an example.
That's a sighting of 'something'. Yes, he's a credible witness but we don't know the nature of what he witnessed. He could also be lying under orders.

I was referring to the claims that the government has alien tech in its possession. People have only testified that they have been told that is the case by others who have seen it. No first hand testimony for that?
 
That's a sighting of 'something'. Yes, he's a credible witness but we don't know the nature of what he witnessed. He could also be lying under orders.

I was referring to the claims that the government has alien tech in its possession. People have only testified that they have been told that is the case by others who have seen it. No first hand testimony for that?
Under oath to Congress, not that I recall. Supposedly, a few people with such knowledge and experiences (was briefly discussed in hearing BTW) may publicly discuss that in the near future they claim and spoken to members of Congress in a SCIF. Recall the push is to do it by the book and legally and that's an intentionally slow process. Like anyone who follows this topic, tired of the damn SCIFs and endless refusal to disclose, but we have come a long way in the last few years.
 
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