Not true. More than half of the so called "tax cuts" are continuation of existing tax cuts that were due to expire end of this year. What remains is about $1.7 trillion dollars which is much less than $2.6 trillion dollars we will be paying for tariffs over the next 10 years. Worse yet, tariffs are inflationary, coming on the heals of higher prices on goods, creating a dangerous situation for the economy.
Based on Internet searches: Imports of goods to the U.S. in 2024 of $3.4 trillion ($4.1 trillion with services) make up a small portion of the United States GDP of $30 trillion. Using the current $30 trillion GDP, the $2.6 trillion number that you supplied as the total of value tariffs over 10-years will be a very small portion of the total $300 trillion GDP over 10-years.
You should understand that all countries have tariffs and often more importantly, rules which limit or prohibit imports of selected goods. For example, without EU and local European country rules, the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine without the war, would drive a huge number of European farmers out of business. Most rice farmers in Japan would be gone without limits on imports from countries with more efficient agriculture.
Rules on the import of Russian pipeline natural gas are driving many industries in the EU out of business or to relocate to the U.S. and have raised electricity prices for EU countries and the UK to exorbitant levels. German has been in recession for two years due to increased energy costs and soon will be a very different country economically.
In 2008 the GDP of the EU and the U.S. were about equal, now the U.S. is far ahead. This is due to several effects including the U.K. fleeing from the EU. The differences in GDP between the two regions continues to grow. The EU emphasis on green energy and restrictive trade practices will soon make it backwater compared to China and the U.S. with other countries such as India gaining ground.
Imports make up a lower percentage GDP in the U.S. than in other major countries:
U.S. - 12%
China - 14%
U.K. - 23%
Japan - 18%
EU - 35%
The large differences in wealth in the U.S. between the top 20% and the bottom 80% are mostly due to actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID disaster. Interest rates that were too low for too long. The biggest banks received the usual FED put including large injections of capital. All of this,increased the value of capital and made those with capital, such the average baby boomers like me, disproportionally better off, and the very wealth grew to ridiculously wealthy.
30-years ago I paid for my kids college (much cheaper then) and later gave one of them the 20% down payment for a house in what as then a low cost area The other son didn't need the help. Without college debt and with a very low mortgage interest rate that was refinanced during COVID the two of them have different financial situations from other non-baby boomers.
Easy credit over the period converted the "company store" mentioned in the old song, to credit card and especially educational loans at high rates. The concept that any college degree is worth big money, which it isn't and doesn't even guarantee a job, was a contributing factor.
Within the past month a shared a pizza at Costco, I have the diet of a 12-year old boy, with a guy who had recently graduated from college. He went to Berkeley which is a good school and incurred some debt. He majored in anthropology and surprise, can't find a job.
There was a receptionist where a friend of mine worked. The receptionist is very hardworking with two jobs and is a really nice person. In the past she was somehow, unfortunately, admitted o a state college where she inevitably failed after a year with a $25k college loan, which will take many years to payoff.
There are likely millions of young people with similar stories. There also seem to be a huge number of people in their 40's and 50's with college loans that they have trouble paying. The total of college loans keeps growing so obviously people of all ages continue to be drawn to the mirage of easy money in their pocket today, and the college rainbow with the pot of gold in the distance.
Tariffs are a minor financial issue compared to the problems outlined above, and those barely lurking ahead such a the AI and housing bubbles.