Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[North_Sky]

As for a vaccine(s), we are not there yet, and that's the problem.
And when a vaccine(s) come, we might have a bigger problem than what we bargain for.

 

[phoenixdogfan]

As for a vaccine(s), we are not there yet, and that's the problem.
And when a vaccine(s) come, we might have a bigger problem than what we bargain for.

Be more specific. Noncompliance? Overconfidence in its efficacy? Bad batches that actually spead Covid 19 rather than supress it? An ineffective vaccine rushed to market b/c of undue political pressure to help someone's chances in an upcoming election? Loss of public confidence as a result of such a debacle? Am I missing anything?

 

[North_Sky]

Here, an article of interest on this very subject ...
• https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/health/covid-19-vaccine-fda-independent-commission/index.html

Forget the source, it's the same everywhere.
And that is a very tough challenge because there is always someone who likes to take control under the table.

Dr. Kathryn Stephenson, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School, said she thought of the idea of an independent panel to increase trust in the vaccine after several colleagues told her they did not want to get a coronavirus vaccine when it becomes available.

"I'm hearing this from my peers, from doctors and nurses. They're not anti-vaxxers. They're pro vaccine. They vaccinated their own children. But they are skeptical about this vaccine," said Stephenson, director of the clinical trials unit at the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center.

Separately from Stephenson, bioethicist Arthur Caplan arrived at the same conclusion.

"We're used to this world where if the FDA or the CDC or the NAS says something is safe and effective, that's enough, but I don't think this time that's sufficient to overturn public skepticism," said Caplan, director of medical ethics at NYU Langone Health, referring to the US Centers for Disease Control and the National Academy of Sciences. "I think we desperately need an independent national commission."

 

[North_Sky]

And this, it's all hocus pocus @ this stage, just like Sputnik V ...
• https://globalnews.ca/news/7307345/novavax-vaccine-canada-agreement/

 

[North_Sky]

But this, is a very nice read for everyone here ...
☆ https://api.nationalgeographic.com/...trude-elion-antivirals-coronavirus-remdesivir

No sweat

 

[Racheski]

Having said this the revised guidelines are unlikely to change current practices because to a large degree, the CDC has become irrelevant to the Covid response by medical professionals.

The problem is with reimbursement. Payors could begin to deny reimbursement to providers for testing on individuals who are asymptomatic, on the grounds of medical necessity and cite CDC guidelines as justification.

 

[North_Sky]

Health & Science

This is in the neck of my woods, next door province ...
• https://edmontonjournal.com/news/lo...haw/wcm/59231b82-35c7-4c38-9e21-4bbe1a740a6c/

I worked all over in Alberta in my youth.
In my sincere opinion she is making a grave mistake...we shall see, but I truly believe she'll be regretting it, dearly.

 

[North_Sky]

Former FDA commissioner says US should not model Sweden's Covid-19 response

"Sweden should not be America's model for pandemic response, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, wrote in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

Some people have pointed to Sweden as a successful model for the softening of guidelines – but Gottlieb wrote that the United States should continue focusing on containing the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19.

"Swedish government officials initially sought to let the virus run largely unchallenged in the general population while taking steps to protect the elderly. The Swedish view was that the country could reach herd immunity without jeopardizing the economy. But holding up Sweden as an enlightened model misreads important parts of its experience," Gottlieb wrote in the op-ed.
"Many Swedes pulled back from normal activities to shelter themselves from infection anyway, even younger and middle-aged people. The country experienced 5,821 Covid deaths in a population the size of North Carolina. And Sweden is far short of herd immunity, even as the country’s economic recovery ranks among the worst in its region," Gottlieb wrote.

"Yet embrace of the 'Swedish model; is based on assumptions that sidestep some of these facts. The biggest misconception is a belief that there’s a large reservoir of Americans who are already immune to Covid," Gottlieb wrote. "Confronting a dangerous pandemic requires containing spread wherever it is reasonably possible. Sensible measures such as universal masking, testing and widespread and rapid contact tracing can help. The best way to protect the vulnerable is to try to protect everyone."

I'm with him.

 

[jasonq997]

Former FDA commissioner says US should not model Sweden's Covid-19 response

"Sweden should not be America's model for pandemic response, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, wrote in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

Some people have pointed to Sweden as a successful model for the softening of guidelines – but Gottlieb wrote that the United States should continue focusing on containing the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19.

"Swedish government officials initially sought to let the virus run largely unchallenged in the general population while taking steps to protect the elderly. The Swedish view was that the country could reach herd immunity without jeopardizing the economy. But holding up Sweden as an enlightened model misreads important parts of its experience," Gottlieb wrote in the op-ed.
"Many Swedes pulled back from normal activities to shelter themselves from infection anyway, even younger and middle-aged people. The country experienced 5,821 Covid deaths in a population the size of North Carolina. And Sweden is far short of herd immunity, even as the country’s economic recovery ranks among the worst in its region," Gottlieb wrote.

"Yet embrace of the 'Swedish model; is based on assumptions that sidestep some of these facts. The biggest misconception is a belief that there’s a large reservoir of Americans who are already immune to Covid," Gottlieb wrote. "Confronting a dangerous pandemic requires containing spread wherever it is reasonably possible. Sensible measures such as universal masking, testing and widespread and rapid contact tracing can help. The best way to protect the vulnerable is to try to protect everyone."

I'm with him.

If we look at the data, the pandemic has run its course in Sweden (and in most of the rest of Europe). It is the same in hard hit pre shutdown states in the U.S. It is running its course in the western U.S. states that have gone through their curves this Summer. Overly protective policies and rules have nothing to do with the reality of the situation, which is this: We are all forced to follow a "herd immunity" strategy whether we like it or not. The deaths per million figures will be roughly the same in all Western countries regardless of policy choices.

We can have policies that distort the curve (with severe consequences), but the curve will happen. Government officials and cable news talking heads will pretend otherwise because this is what people want to believe. A vaccine will cause peace of mind, and that will be its main benefit. The virus's ability to rapidly spread will be done deal in almost every corner of the developed world well before we have one.

 

[Vasr]

What is amazing to me is how much of these orders are lawyer drafted not just for precision but for CYA.

 

[Vasr]

The problem is with reimbursement. Payors could begin to deny reimbursement to providers for testing on individuals who are asymptomatic, on the grounds of medical necessity and cite CDC guidelines as justification.

This is an interesting point especially given the timing coinciding with the withdrawal of federal funds for underwriting test costs. Insurance lobby may very well be behind it.

 

[Vasr]

If we look at the data, the pandemic has run its course in Sweden (and in most of the rest of Europe). It is the same in hard hit pre shutdown states in the U.S. It is running its course in the western U.S. states that have gone through their curves this Summer. Overly protective policies and rules have nothing to do with the reality of the situation, which is this: We are all forced to follow a "herd immunity" strategy whether we like it or not. The deaths per million figures will be roughly the same in all Western countries regardless of policy choices.

We can have policies that distort the curve (with severe consequences), but the curve will happen. Government officials and cable news talking heads will pretend otherwise because this is what people want to believe. A vaccine will cause peace of mind, and that will be its main benefit. The virus's ability to rapidly spread will be done deal in almost every corner of the developed world well before we have one.

Have you been infected or if not doing anything to hasten it for the benefit of all? If not why not?

Just asking ...

 

[Doodski]

Health & Science

This is in the neck of my woods, next door province ...
• https://edmontonjournal.com/news/lo...haw/wcm/59231b82-35c7-4c38-9e21-4bbe1a740a6c/

I worked all over in Alberta in my youth.
In my sincere opinion she is making a grave mistake...we shall see, but I truly believe she'll be regretting it, dearly.

This will get interesting for sure. I predict there is going to be a severe wave/outbreak and they will shut it down and go back to home schooling.

 

[North_Sky]

If we look at the data, the pandemic has run its course in Sweden (and in most of the rest of Europe). It is the same in hard hit pre shutdown states in the U.S. It is running its course in the western U.S. states that have gone through their curves this Summer. Overly protective policies and rules have nothing to do with the reality of the situation, which is this: We are all forced to follow a "herd immunity" strategy whether we like it or not. The deaths per million figures will be roughly the same in all Western countries regardless of policy choices.

We can have policies that distort the curve (with severe consequences), but the curve will happen. Government officials and cable news talking heads will pretend otherwise because this is what people want to believe. A vaccine will cause peace of mind, and that will be its main benefit. The virus's ability to rapidly spread will be done deal in almost every corner of the developed world well before we have one.

Sweden hasn't even gone through the four seasons yet. Same for the rest of Europe, same for the world. The year is still only 2020. We haven't yet start 2021 and 2022.

Some countries have an excellent handle on this virus containement; they'll end up better positioned for the future health of their population (old and young) plus their economy.
Of course this is my opinion.

I follow a healthy science, not the loose sick cannons of this world.

I do agree that the virus will infect a fair bunch worldwide, it's inevitable.
Stay calm, don't panic, teach our children well.

 

[North_Sky]

This will get interesting for sure. I predict there is going to be a severe wave/outbreak and they will shut it down and go back to home schooling.

I'm afraid so; observing very attentively the places in the world where schools and universities have already reopened, including in the south...USA.

 

[North_Sky]

Health & Science

On topic ... herd immunity strategy, Sweden and other countries ...
• https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/heal...avirus-pandemic-explainer-wellness/index.html

I'm going to add this (please read the full article); if a country achieves herd immunity without an effective vaccine, only from the pandemic itself and the measures to get there, and of course the inevitable collateral damage (deaths), what happens next?
...Business as usual with people travelling by planes and cruise ships around the world?
You get my point. It's a global effort; if 2 million people die in the US alone a lot more are going to die worldwide to make the economy working...travel vacations everywhere.

Best to adopt stricter strategies like some countries do in order to save lives, lives of their populations, their elders and to protect the health of their young ones, and to respect the lives of everyone else around the planet.

What is good in having public planes flying, cruise ships sailing, public transportation buses, trains, subways if not taking protective measures that stop spreading the virus and killing more people so less people end up travelling all together?

In Europe right now (in Canada too), people visiting from countries where the virus is rampant and active, is a no go. Of course not; we are working in stopping it, in slowing it down to a halt. If not we die, a fair good bunch of us, and many more get sick.

 

[Doodski]

In Europe right now (in Canada too), people visiting from countries where the virus is rampant and active, is a no go. Of course not; we are working in stopping it, in slowing it down to a halt. If not we die, a fair good bunch of us, and many more get sick.

We have hundreds of people of faith in Alberta getting together en mass for recreation and other events and they are getting infected and then over the weeks after they are infecting many. It's a problem and they don't seem to want to address that.

 

[North_Sky]

It is sad, and people who work in Alberta but live in British Columbia ... you fill the blanks.

In BC it's hard to get the data where cases are. But this is certain; masks are becoming mandatory more and more in more places...grocery stores, etc. And the anti-mask people ... you fill the blanks here too because we all know what it ends up to.

What can we all do to stop, to slow down this invisible and virulent virus that we don't already know? ...No blanks here this time.

 

[Doodski]

and people who work in Alberta but live in British Columbia ... you fill the blanks.

It's already happened. ~45 people returned to BC after a faith event and took the virus with them back home.

 

[Doodski]

masks are becoming mandatory more and more in more places...grocery stores, etc. And the anti-mask people ... you fill the blanks here too because we all know what it ends up to.

I have a major issue with the masks causing fogging of my prescription lenses and when the cool weather hits it's going to get way worse. I'll endure and wear my mask but it is a pain in the derriere. I am waiting to see how other people handle the issue too.