Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[Vasr]

Also, it would seem like the effect on the economy would depend on whether a country's economy is based more on consumption or production/manufacturing. It seems far easier to do measured easing to start up production or to keep it going than increase consumption by easing rules on general population that are far more difficult to control.

Economies like the US are primarily based on consumption and may explain the motivation to ease the rules (whether this is coincident with political reasons is a different issue). One would also expect the consequences of such easing would also be more drastic on the consumption based economies than manufacture based economies where you can have production capacity go up while social restrictions are still in place. Not sure stay-at-home, online shopping replacements can compensate for consumption (except in the audio markets!) with no physical restrictions. I am not making a case for such easing by any means so I am not misunderstood.

Of course, manufacturing economies need the consuming economies to be healthy in an inter-connected world!

 

[onofno]

You are literally exploiting other's people herd immunity. If everyone were like you, viruses would have a field day. And you seem proud of it too........

Strange answer... you can not imagine that I just don't want to pollute my body with injections AND drugs sold in pharmacies...
I try to keep my body clean.
If I get something really bad for my health I'll go to an hospital, it's free in France not just for us.
Plus I eat mostly fish and seaweeds because I don't like the way animals are brutalized then killed in the slaughterhouses.

 

[A Surfer]

The same way it's worked for hundreds of years. If, say, half the population is immunised, the virus reproduction rate is halved. If the reproduction rate is maintained below 1, the current epidemic will eventually subside. After that, the virus might vanish entirely, or it might linger and cause occasional minor outbreaks. If a vaccine is used diligently, the virus should in time be virtually eradicated. The effort required to achieve that depends largely on how effective a vaccine is and how long it lasts. A one-off injection with long-lasting effect requires less on-going effort than one that needs to be updated regularly. Look at the strategies and outcomes for various other diseases to get an idea of the possible futures for covid-19.

How do you know with this unknown vaccine, with this new virus that the reproduction rate is so greatly reduced? Seems like wishful thinking to me.

 

[Veri]

Strange answer... you can not imagine that I just don't want to pollute my body with injections AND drugs sold in pharmacies...
I try to keep my body clean.

Excuse me but MY answer is the strange answer???? Get out of here man. Next you're going to tell me to start taking homeopathic medicine

 

[A Surfer]

...
Plus I eat mostly fish and seaweeds because I don't like the way animals are brutalized then killed in the slaughterhouses.

Surely you aren't that uninformed about how commercial fishing happens. Do some research and if you think eating fish is any less tied to exploitation, brutality and environmental degradation, well I am not sure what to say. If your argument is that fish are somehow lesser creatures and therefore what happens to them is not relevant, well then tell me why it is different for chickens, pigs and cows?

To be transparent, despite eating meat, I am disgusted with myself as I do consider the industrial meat industry/complex needlessly cruel so I am not without empathy for animals. I also fully acknowledge my hypocrisy as does my vegetarian girlfriend!

 

[mansr]

How do you know with this unknown vaccine, with this new virus that the reproduction rate is so greatly reduced? Seems like wishful thinking to me.

How well the vaccines end up working is of course still unknown. The Phase II results from Oxford look promising, though. I think it's reasonable to expect at least one of the many vaccines being developed to be at least somewhat effective for some duration. Even if it's only 50% effective and only lasts for a year, it's still far better than nothing at all. The various lockdown measures brought the reproduction rate below 1, so with the help of a partially effective vaccine, things could be relaxed a bit without reigniting the epidemic. It's the combined effect all countermeasures that matters, and every contribution helps. Face masks and distancing don't completely prevent spread, but they do reduce it. I don't see anyone decrying those as wishful thinking.

 

[maty]

[ REPORT: Sweden’s chief epidemiologist wanted to keep schools open to spread SARS-CoV-2 in drive for herd immunity, emails show. "One point might speak for keeping schools open in order to reach herd immunity more quickly," Dr Tegnell wrote in the email. ]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1293956729877803013

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist wanted to keep schools open to spread Covid in drive for herd immunity, emails show
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...idemiologist-wanted-keep-schools-open-spread/

 

[A Surfer]

How well the vaccines end up working is of course still unknown. The Phase II results from Oxford look promising, though. I think it's reasonable to expect at least one of the many vaccines being developed to be at least somewhat effective for some duration. Even if it's only 50% effective and only lasts for a year, it's still far better than nothing at all. The various lockdown measures brought the reproduction rate below 1, so with the help of a partially effective vaccine, things could be relaxed a bit without reigniting the epidemic. It's the combined effect all countermeasures that matters, and every contribution helps. Face masks and distancing don't completely prevent spread, but they do reduce it. I don't see anyone decrying those as wishful thinking.

That is still optimistic and until actually proven in widespread use we will have to remain cautiously optimistic. It is wishful thinking in the context of what we know at present about it's efficacy in the field, which is very little. I am not against vaccinations, but I am skeptical that the data provided (before public money is poured into buying and implementing an immunization program) isn't overly optimistic. Does anybody believe that with tens of billions of dollars in pure profit at stake that the results might not be a tiny bit skewed? Sorry, I am not a conspiracy theorist at all, but I do know that greed exists, and it is an incredibly powerful motivator of behaviour. This wouldn't be the first time that the touted efficacy of a vaccine falls short when actually put in use. Time will tell.

 

[Racheski]

[ REPORT: Sweden’s chief epidemiologist wanted to keep schools open to spread SARS-CoV-2 in drive for herd immunity, emails show. "One point might speak for keeping schools open in order to reach herd immunity more quickly," Dr Tegnell wrote in the email. ]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1293956729877803013

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist wanted to keep schools open to spread Covid in drive for herd immunity, emails show
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...idemiologist-wanted-keep-schools-open-spread/

Not the most flattering picture, eh?

 

[A Surfer]

Not the most flattering picture, eh?

We shall see in time. Herd immunity is a well supported concept even if in this specific pandemic the evidence for it is less clear. It isn't a foregone conclusion as of yet that herd immunity isn't still very important. Much yet to learn.

 

[mansr]

That is still optimistic and until actually proven in widespread use we will have to remain cautiously optimistic. It is wishful thinking in the context of what we know at present about it's efficacy in the field, which is very little. I am not against vaccinations, but I am skeptical that the data provided (before public money is poured into buying and implementing an immunization program) isn't overly optimistic. Does anybody believe that with tens of billions of dollars in pure profit at stake that the results might not be a tiny bit skewed? Sorry, I am not a conspiracy theorist at all, but I do know that greed exists, and it is an incredibly powerful motivator of behaviour. This wouldn't be the first time that the touted efficacy of a vaccine falls short when actually put in use. Time will tell.

It's just a corona virus. It doesn't have any crazy tricks like HIV, or even herpes, to evade normal immune system responses. I see no reason to doubt that a reasonably good vaccine can be produced, whether that ends up being the Oxford one or something else. As you say, the profit opportunities are great, so there's every motivation to succeed.

 

[Racheski]

We shall see in time. Herd immunity is a well supported concept even if in this specific pandemic the evidence for it is less clear. It isn't a foregone conclusion as of yet that herd immunity isn't still very important. Much yet to learn.

I literally mean the picture of the epidemiologist.

 

[mansr]

We shall see in time. Herd immunity is a well supported concept even if in this specific pandemic the evidence for it is less clear. It isn't a foregone conclusion as of yet that herd immunity isn't still very important. Much yet to learn.

Herd immunity is real and most likely would work here too. The problem is that achieving it quickly might have a rather grim price.

 

[Vasr]

I literally mean the picture of the epidemiologist.

Also looks like he is in quarantine himself.

 

[Thomas_A]

With respect to immunity, crossreactivity towards other corona viruses may well be the reason why children are more protected, through T- cell/cell-mediated immunity. It is well known that children have more antibodies against endemic corona viruses that wanes among grown-ups, indicating that common colds caused by corona are frequent among children. Any attempt to ”use herd immunity among children” to protect elderly is IMO pointless.

 

[Racheski]

Does anybody believe that with tens of billions of dollars in pure profit at stake that the results might not be a tiny bit skewed? Sorry, I am not a conspiracy theorist at all, but I do know that greed exists, and it is an incredibly powerful motivator of behaviour.

I somewhat agree with you on this point. There is obviously a strong financial incentive to falsify COVID clinical trial data for short term profit, especially for smaller companies that do not have a diverse portfolio of revenue generating products (e.g. Moderna, Novavax). This is why having an independent body in the FDA to verify results is as important as it has ever been. The US Government also has a whistleblower program that entitles the whistleblower to a % of the damages recovered by the federal government in a law suit.

 

[North_Sky]

Herd immunity is real and most likely would work here too. The problem is that achieving it quickly might have a rather grim price.

Indeed, the risky number of lives lost @ stake is real in such a scenario as herd immunity. Is it worth taking? No way. We have better options than that.

Sacrifying human lives is the last thing in mind to any serious health scientist expert, like Dr. Anthony Fauci for example. I sure side with him, and the multitude of other professional intelligent health and epidemiologists expert scientists of the world, doctors and nurses of our globe included.

My opinion.

 

[North_Sky]

On herd immunity ...
• https://in.news.yahoo.com/over-half-mumbais-slum-residents-050900244.html

 

[onofno]

Excuse me but MY answer is the strange answer???? Get out of here man. Next you're going to tell me to start taking homeopathic medicine

NO because I don't suggest people including friends to do what I don't do : buying drugs and/or homeopathic medicine in pharmacies... Truth is, I don't care what they are doing with their bodies.

 

[Wes]

Strange answer... you can not imagine that I just don't want to pollute my body with injections AND drugs sold in pharmacies...
I try to keep my body clean.
If I get something really bad for my health I'll go to an hospital, it's free in France not just for us.
Plus I eat mostly fish and seaweeds because I don't like the way animals are brutalized then killed in the slaughterhouses.

I can imagine that you just don't want to pollute your body with toxins like oxygen.