Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[onofno]

One in three Americans (33%) would refuse a COVID-19 vaccine ...
• https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/1...-finds/ar-BB17HHm0?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=spartandhp

About Canadians? ...Germans? ...Australians? ...French? ...British? ...Japanese? ...Chinese? ...Brazilians? ...South Africans? ...Indians? ...Mexicans? ...Italians? ...Russians? ...???

In France 32% and I'm part of them. I've never been vaccinated since 1970 for sure, maybe before - and never swallowed products sold in pharmacies since 1989 and I'm 68. I have no pathologies.
My grandchildren have never been vaccinated at all, they are living in Zurich, Switzerland where the main language is German.
They are bilingual F/G.
My family is divided 50/50 : France/Switzerland. (Switzerland is divided by three languages German - French - Italian).

>> The Huffpost

 

[PierreV]

I have no pathologies.

Congratulations

 

[Veri]

In France 32% and I'm part of them. I've never been vaccinated since 1970 for sure, maybe before - and never swallowed products sold in pharmacies since 1989 and I'm 68. I have no pathologies.
My grandchildren have never been vaccinated at all, they are living in Zurich, Switzerland where the main language is German.
They are bilingual F/G.
My family is divided 50/50 : France/Switzerland. (Switzerland is divided by three languages German - French - Italian).

>> The Huffpost

You are literally exploiting other's people herd immunity. If everyone were like you, viruses would have a field day. And you seem proud of it too........

 

[Rja4000]

You are literally exploiting other's people herd immunity. If everyone were like you, viruses would have a field day. And you seem proud of it too........

Well, a COVID vaccine, in 2 years from now (if COVID still does some harm by then), why not ?
In general, I'm not against vaccines at all.

But a vaccine tested in a hurry with such big economic stake (which typically leads to serious shortcuts) ?
Not for me. (I'd even say: not for anyone)
That may perfectly harm many more people than the COVID itself.

 

[Thomas savage]

Some folks still believe that this virus is like nothing, not worth worrying about, not worth losing sleep over it, not worth closing the bars, not worth losing jobs ... etc., etc., etc.

In particular young people tend to believe that they are invincible, immortal and will live till the end of times...eternal. ...Not all kids but a fair bunch...drinkers and party goers, punks and ignorant addicts.

Kids in Canada (BC) are going back to school first week of September (that's the normal Fall school return to here). Kids are strong they should handle it...I hope.
It's the teachers and principals and parents and grandparents I'm a little concerned about.
I hope and I pray that everyone will be safe and lives will be spared. Deep down in my spirit that hope is very strong....hope for a safe future, hope hope hope...Faith, Belief, Hope.

True, there's not even a million dead worlwide...that won't be before the end of September anyway. But my HOPE is so strong that I hope even not.

Anyway this young man from Chicago I read on Facebook ...



I know that here @ ASR we are more science oriented folks, and we take life scientifically serious...with data and facts and scientific analysis and measurements. So we know that this virus is serious, even with only 730,000 plus (tomorrow morning) dead worldwide.
And 20 million (tomorrow) infected people is small peanuts for a 7.8 billion world population.
Natural herd immunity (say 60 to 70%) won't happen tomorrow morning, but in about five to six years or most likely more; it all depends . . . of the universal attitude and prayers of hope for a vaccine or two. Our planet is still orbiting and nothing is going to stop it orbiting for a couple more billion years, if we're lucky enough to not self-destruct by pushing the wrong button.

We're good, real good. Schools are our next test ...
Banks too ... I mean the money inside them and where that money goes and what it is used for ...

Meanwhile life is normal as it can be during a pandemic ...
People still listen to stereo music and buy new headphones and DACs.
Grocery stores still have food and I even saw corn on sale for a dollar each (very small corn). I'll wait till they get bigger and a dozen for five bucks. Corn is good for you, if you still have your teeth ...

Can we just stick to the topic please , this is going way off the reservation.

 

[Rja4000]

Some "measurements" from Belgium

Official statistics from August 10th

Tests and New Cases/day

Total hospitalizations, with Total ICU (and number of ICU beds)

Deaths evolution

Total mortality (COVID + all other causes) vs Seasonal total mortality averaged over 10 years
(Data available up to July 26th)

Cases, Hospitalization, ICU and Deaths on the same graph

May we conclude something regarding the number of people that were infected ?
I don't know.

But when we look at the Cases vs Tests, it's pretty obvious that at the beginning only severely ill people were tested/detected. So the actual figure was more likely to be somewhere around 50 times as much (just a guess).
So we may well be with several million people infected.
Belgium is 11.4 Mio people



PS: In the last graph, the number of new ICU patients is a guess, since only the total of occupied beds figure is available.
I supposed all death were coming from ICU, which is not true. So new ICU per day figure was actually lower than shown here. But actual death ratio is not available.

There is no other personnal interpretation in any other figure.

 

[Don Hills]

And in regards to New Zealand latest news on new cases, four, effectively breaking an amazing and highly respectable and notable free 102-day run Coronavirus zero cases ...

It was expected. What will matter is how we deal with it, whether our contact tracing and isolation (and peoples' buy-in to the restrictions) will contain it or whether we end up with it widespread in the community again. One interesting point is that one of the cases works at a frozen food shipping depot, handling imported frozen goods.

 

[Racheski]

It was expected. What will matter is how we deal with it, whether our contact tracing and isolation (and peoples' buy-in to the restrictions) will contain it or whether we end up with it widespread in the community again. One interesting point is that one of the cases works at a frozen food shipping depot, handling imported frozen goods.

Bravo, that's the attitude that has NZ kicking COVID19 butt. Yes NZ has some significant geo/demographical advantages (surrounded by water, relatively small pop), but the early and strong interventions combined with a vigilant attitude is a model for the world.

 

[North_Sky]

In France 32% and I'm part of them. I've never been vaccinated since 1970 for sure, maybe before - and never swallowed products sold in pharmacies since 1989 and I'm 68. I have no pathologies.
My grandchildren have never been vaccinated at all, they are living in Zurich, Switzerland where the main language is German.
They are bilingual F/G.
My family is divided 50/50 : France/Switzerland. (Switzerland is divided by three languages German - French - Italian).

>> The Huffpost

In Canada I don't know but I suspect around 33% also.
Right now I'm part of that 33% and I'm only few years younger than you.
My family mainly resides in North America...Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Florida. We are bilingual also...French/English except for few...French only.

Having lived in Montreal and in Vancouver I was exposed extensively to multi-cultural diversification...a rainbow of beautiful people from all over the world.

This is going to be real tough the future for our grandchildren ...
And the latest brand new fresh news is that in British Columbia where I resides now, the schools won't be reopening first week of September. This is good news to me.
Before yesterday I was worried as they were supposed to reopen all across the province.
• https://globalnews.ca/news/7266824/school-year-start-date-pushed-back-bc/

Us Canadians in general we take this pandemic very seriously.
And as anywhere else in the world opinions vary greatly on vaccines and herd immunity.
Before we are out of the woods we're going to see lots of false alarms and fake news.
Best is to rely on our top best scientists, and nobody else.

Stay safe, nice to make your acquaintance; I like several of the pictures you posted.

 

[North_Sky]

Can we just stick to the topic please , this is going way off the reservation.

Sure Thomas, we're among friends here; responsible respectable intelligent adult friends.

 

[Putter]

The impression I get is that if a significant % of people decline to get vaccinated, we will end up with herd immunity quicker albeit with more deaths. See, we're back on topic. This of course assumes that the vaccines besides being effective don't cause adverse reactions that actually increase the death rate. If it's going to happen anywhere, it seems like it would in Russia having largely bypassed normal safety checks.

 

[North_Sky]

They skipped phase 3 in Russia?
In Canada we don't want a vaccine without proven written analysed data...real facts.
Russia hasn't provided.

 

[Sak]

They skipped phase 3 in Russia?
In Canada we don't want a vaccine without proven written analysed data...real facts.
Russia hasn't provided.

Preclinical studies of vaccine were carried out at the Gamaleya Center and at 48 research institutes of the Ministry of Defense, and clinical studies at the Sechenov University and the branch of the Burdenko Main Military Clinical Hospital. Experts have repeatedly emphasized that during the tests, all volunteers (their age is from 18 to 60 years old) developed high titers of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, and none of them had serious complications.
According to news reports, the vaccine will appear for ordinary people by the end of the year, around December.

https://ria.ru/20200811/1575637509.html (Vaccine development data collected from all countries. (in russian))

https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20200812/1575695887.html

 

[Racheski]

The impression I get is that if a significant % of people decline to get vaccinated, we will end up with herd immunity quicker albeit with more deaths. See, we're back on topic. This of course assumes that the vaccines besides being effective don't cause adverse reactions that actually increase the death rate. If it's going to happen anywhere, it seems like it would in Russia having largely bypassed normal safety checks.

The death rate is too low for this to be true. Also, non-intuitively, more people dying from the disease may actually delay herd immunity because survivors could be immune and provide protection.
Here is a herd immunity calculator from five thirty eight to play around with.

 

[March Audio]

Bravo, that's the attitude that has NZ kicking COVID19 butt. Yes NZ has some significant geo/demographical advantages (surrounded by water, relatively small pop), but the early and strong interventions combined with a vigilant attitude is a model for the world.

Here in Oz there were also early and strong interventions. However it has kicked off again over East regardless. Here in the West we are luckily yet to have a second wave.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...-news-melbourne-victoria-new-zealand/12553046

 

[Racheski]

Preclinical studies of vaccine were carried out at the Gamaleya Center and at 48 research institutes of the Ministry of Defense, and clinical studies at the Sechenov University and the branch of the Burdenko Main Military Clinical Hospital. Experts have repeatedly emphasized that during the tests, all volunteers (their age is from 18 to 60 years old) developed high titers of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, and none of them had serious complications.
According to news reports, the vaccine will appear for ordinary people by the end of the year, around December.

https://ria.ru/20200811/1575637509.html (Vaccine development data collected from all countries. (in russian))

https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20200812/1575695887.html

This is interesting. Here is what another article has to say:

• The Russian vaccine, nicknamed "Sputnik V" (lol), has only been tested on 76 people to date.
• The initial certification by this Gamaleya Institute "...stipulates that the vaccine cannot be used widely until 1 January 2021, presumably after larger clinical trials have been completed."
• "A website for Sputnik V says a phase III efficacy trial involving more than 2000 people will begin on 12 August in Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Mexico

IMO this is no more significant than any of the other vaccines undergoing Phase III clinical trials.

 

[Sak]

IMO this is no more significant than any of the other vaccines undergoing Phase III clinical trials.

May be.
But at the same time, any country that has registered its first vaccine will inevitably be criticized by society.

Here's another interesting article, with public comments.
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/477596

 

[Racheski]

May be.
But at the same time, any country that has registered its first vaccine will inevitably be criticized by society.

Here's another interesting article, with public comments.
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/477596

I don't speak the Russki.

 

[North_Sky]

Preclinical studies of vaccine were carried out at the Gamaleya Center and at 48 research institutes of the Ministry of Defense, and clinical studies at the Sechenov University and the branch of the Burdenko Main Military Clinical Hospital. Experts have repeatedly emphasized that during the tests, all volunteers (their age is from 18 to 60 years old) developed high titers of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, and none of them had serious complications.
According to news reports, the vaccine will appear for ordinary people by the end of the year, around December.

https://ria.ru/20200811/1575637509.html (Vaccine development data collected from all countries. (in russian))

https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20200812/1575695887.html

Canada said they were not provided with enough scientific data. Not me saying that, but the health scientists experts in Canada. I don't trust anybody else but science data facts from trusty experts. Things are missing with that Russian vaccine ...
¤ http://www.businessworld.in/article...accine-due-to-lack-of-data/12-08-2020-307678/

Plus:

"The World Health Organization says it has not received enough information on the Russian COVID-19 vaccine to evaluate it. Jarbas Barbosa, the assistant director of its regional branch, the Pan American Health Organization, said on Tuesday that plans to produce the potential vaccine in Brazil should not go ahead until Phase 2 and 3 trials are completed to guarantee its safety and effectiveness.

Any vaccine producer has to follow this procedure that guarantees it is safe and has the WHO's recommendation," he said in a virtual briefing from Washington."

 

[Sak]

I don't speak the Russki.

With google translate, you can read articles in any language.