Zero-emission vehicles, their batteries & subsidies/rebates for them.- No politics regarding the subsidies!

[Chromatischism]

“A May 2021 report from the International Energy Agency, an organization noted for its historically cautious forecasts, included a road map to achieve global net-zero emissions by mid-century, which includes conversion to electric transport as a cornerstone. The confidence that this is achievable reflects a growing consensus among policymakers, researchers and manufacturers that challenges to electrifying cars are now entirely solvable — and that if we want to have any hope of keeping climate change to a manageable level, there is no time to lose.” -Nature, “Electric cars and batteries: how will the world produce enough?”, 17 Aug 2021

Relevant: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/25/bloomberg-declares-that-the-tipping-point-has-been-reached/

"Just like the smartphone, soon the EV will be normal. Some have even compared driving an ICE to smoking — it will not just be unusual, it will be antisocial and detrimental to your health.

“The US is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass EV adoption,” Bloomberg writes. At 5% penetration, a new technology starts the almost vertical part of the “S” curve adoption..."

 

[Blumlein 88]

Yes this is all political humdrum. There is no way to solve the problem. Electric vehicles are already hitting the limits of physics in terms of performance and battery charging times. Without an entirely different Battery Technology there is no future for EVS outside of City commuting vehicles. Additionally as a society we must make standards for EVS and they must be mass produced in a way that does not involve patented parts and proprietary systems on every single car. Because then you don't own anything as you are unable to repair it.

As a society we must move to nuclear energy if we have any chance with EVs in general. As it is we are entering a global energy crisis.
I will have to how to find the video explaining why EVs cannot bring us to a carbon neutral or carbon zero world. Because all the cars in the world emit only 9% of carbon emissions. Currently building EVs is in that and lithium batteries are unsustainable. Not only due to longevity and scarcity of materials, but also energy density. Gasoline is 17x as dense as a lithium battery in terms of power for weight.
Its a long road ahead. I think a balanced future is the best way to go. The internal combustion engine isn't anywhere near the end of it's usable life and most of the ICE techs are being suppressed by climate agencies pushing EVs.
As with anything balance is usually the answer.

I guess those trips across one or two states in EVs must not have happened since they are city commuting vehicles. I'm not telling you EVs will fix the climate or anything else. To be honest I don't care. I just like them because they are a better car. That they might be greener is just a bonus.

Musk says if he ever gets self driving to work, he will quit selling cars, and make them to provide transporation service like an AI taxi. I believe him (if he can get self driving solved). That would improve efficiency of materials in itself. But that is in the future and you never get to the future by diving into the past.

 

[gvl]

So far looks like Tesla batteries are good for 200k miles or so. Or maybe 175k-250k from results using them as taxis which is the worst use as they get fast charged all the time. The worst thing is that you'll at some point face a big battery replacement cost and it will likely be downstream owners who are more likely not to afford it. Of course you can run into similar things with IC cars if an engine lets go or a modern complex transmissions quits on you. In time all of this will get priced into the used worth of the cars same as it does for all the IC cars.

Have you heard of the fairly common Tesla drive unit problems on the model S? It’s a 10k job to get an out of warranty replacement, I can probably get a gas engine replaced cheaper than that. A new battery will run 25k or more I’d imagine. Batteries also die from age, not cycling, Tesla is an expensive car to own, if you have the means all power to you.

 

[Blumlein 88]

That depends, because transmissions or engines are literally like 1/10th the cost of the battery in most cases. Also you can find them in junkyards and do the work in secondary auto shops.
Batteries don't have a specific mile life, it depends on how much you take care of them. In the case of Tesla; if you are driving the cars hard and heating up the batteries they will have a shorter life. I know a few people who raced quite a bit in their Tesla's and they had to replace the motors at like 50k miles and their batteries were going by 100k....

A battery pack for a Tesla model 3 is about $15,000 or so. That is up due to inflation recently. About 25% of the cost of the car. Lots of these modern transmissions with 8 or 10 speeds will set you back 4 or 5 grand to get replaced. An engine can as well. Plus a Tesla with a new battery is likely ready for another 200,000 miles as far as the go part is concerned. Buying a junkyard part to keep the old heap going isn't an apples to apples comparison. You would likely need both an engine and transmission to reach 400,000 miles. True some do it without now, but it isn't quite the norm. Seems you are thinking of cars from a few years ago. These in the last few years have tons of electronics and other complex systems that aren't a backyard shadetree repair item.

 

[gvl]

A battery pack for a Tesla model 3 is about $15,000 or so.

Do you have a reference to back this up? I’m genuinely curious, because if true this is pretty good.

 

[Blumlein 88]

Do you have a reference to back this up?

Replacing The Battery Pack On A Tesla Model 3 Costs More Than You Think - SlashGear

There's no doubt the Tesla Model 3 is an appealing car, but prospective buyers should keep in mind the eventual battery replacement costs when budgeting.

www.slashgear.com

Some have reported around $13k earlier in the year. There are a handful of places that in some cases will fix them for much less depending upon the issue. They buy batteries from wrecked Tesla's and have figured out how to go in and fix issues where most of the cells are good. I fully expect this will become more common as EVs proliferate. I see no reason to think all or most EVs will only be repairable at the dealer any more than is the case with IC cars.

BMW 5 series owners get quoted prices over $20k to replace the engine at the dealer. I think this is a new engine. A rebuild is $4-10K depending upon who does it. You can buy an ebay engine from a wreck for $2-4k and maybe that to get it installed if you cannot do it. Again, people thinking of older simpler cars and what they cost to keep running are not comparing apples to apples.

And I get it, my last vehicles I've owned 21 years, 17 years, and 9 years (totaled out by someone else). The two not wrecked were sold still running with some repairs, but mostly good maintenance along the way.

 

[Newman]

all the cars in the world emit only 9% of carbon emissions.

Well there is this one for USA, so it is the #1 key to getting US emissions down.

And globally it is 22% not 9%. You need to change to a less loopy data source.

Currently building EVs is in that and lithium batteries are unsustainable.

I can’t believe that you wrote this while actually quoting me where I showed an authoritative article saying that all the key players are convinced that the barriers to electrifying cars are all entirely solvable! I even put it in bold!

Gasoline is 17x as dense as a lithium battery in terms of power for weight.

Now this number I have no idea about, because I don’t think there is a useful metric of power for weight when comparing EV energy sources. I am aware of an energy density metric which is actually 100 times greater for gasoline than for lithium batteries… But I wouldn’t care if it was 10,000 times greater, because it is not what you need to be measuring. It ignores the efficiency of the power train, which is far greater for electric vehicles than for petrol vehicles, and it ignores the weight of all other aspects of the power train, not just the fuel cell. When you take that into account, the important weight-to-range ratio is currently about 3 to 1, and is expected to reach equality or parity in the next 20 or so years, which means again, the “irreducible” problem will be solved in the pretty near future. Source: International Society of Automotive Engineers.

 

[gvl]

A used Tesla battery from a wreck maybe. I personally would be uncomfortable letting some 3rd party to do such repairs, but ignorance is bliss.

 

[Blumlein 88]

A used Tesla battery from a wreck maybe. I personally would be uncomfortable letting some 3rd party to do such repairs, but ignorance is bliss.

You'll need someone who knows how to check out a wrecked battery. I don't think Tesla batteries are going to remain only in the hands of Tesla. The market for batteries will go on to develop like any industry does.

 

[gvl]

You'll need someone who knows how to check out a wrecked battery. I don't think Tesla batteries are going to remain only in the hands of Tesla. The market for batteries will go on to develop like any industry does.

Maybe. Back in 2011 there was a lot of talk that there will be 3rd party solutions for Leaf replacement batteries “soon”. Fast forward to 2022 and there’s still nothing. If battery powered EVs are the future this will happen sooner or later given sufficient demand is there, but every manufacturer using proprietary tech will certainly make it happen later rather than sooner.

 

[Timcognito]

That depends, because transmissions or engines are literally like 1/10th the cost of the battery in most cases. Also you can find them in junkyards and do the work in secondary auto shops.

This is not the case in electric cars. Electric cars don’t require multi-speed transmissions because of the so-called “engine” in an electric car, an electric motor. While internal combustion engines require multiple gears with different ratios for power output, electric motors produce a consistent amount of torque at any given RPM within a specific range. Electric motors deliver power instantly, meaning, the process of building up torque through revving as in internal combustion engines is unnecessary. Car manufacturers incorporate carefully calculated gear ratios to maximize efficiency for the electric motor without having to switch through gears. NO TRANSMISSION on EV. Batteries are warranted

 

[gvl]

EVs can benefit from multiple gears, in fact Tesla experimented with it early on but abandoned the idea in favor of single speed reduction gear as making a reliable gearbox for high torque application is difficult or expensive.

 

[blueone]

This is not the case in electric cars. Electric cars don’t require multi-speed transmissions because of the so-called “engine” in an electric car, an electric motor. While internal combustion engines require multiple gears with different ratios for power output, electric motors produce a consistent amount of torque at any given RPM within a specific range. Electric motors deliver power instantly, meaning, the process of building up torque through revving as in internal combustion engines is unnecessary. Car manufacturers incorporate carefully calculated gear ratios to maximize efficiency for the electric motor without having to switch through gears. NO TRANSMISSION on EV. Batteries are warranted

Not necessarily. It's early, very early, in EV development.

Why the Porsche Taycan EV's Two-Speed Transmission Is a Big Deal

Most electric cars have a single-speed direct-drive gearbox, but the Taycan's rear axle uses a two-speed setup for improved acceleration and range.

www.caranddriver.com

 

[Timcognito]

Not necessarily. It's early, very early, in EV development.

The first line of the article makes the point. In development by company who cars cost between $70K-$200k.

 

[Blumlein 88]

Not necessarily. It's early, very early, in EV development.

Why the Porsche Taycan EV's Two-Speed Transmission Is a Big Deal

Most electric cars have a single-speed direct-drive gearbox, but the Taycan's rear axle uses a two-speed setup for improved acceleration and range.

www.caranddriver.com

The thing so many don't pay attention to about ev cars. It's very early. Things will shake out in ways we don't yet know. Tesla being a new company has set the early standard starting with a clean slate. Early days in any new era are exciting and interesting, but not always glitch free.

 

[blueone]

The first line of the article makes the point. In development by company who cars cost between $70K-$200k.

Yeah, if the analysis is correct it makes the point that most EVs are lacking a range-enhancing technology. Since electric motors are not frictionless, running them slower increases efficiency.

 

[Chromatischism]

Since electric motors are not frictionless, running them slower increases efficiency.

So what part of them is still not frictionless? We have brushless motors now, so that part is solved.

 

[Timcognito]

I think most of us here are EV proponents if not adopters. I was was just pointing out that almost all current EVs have no transmissions. Also, Federal law requires automakers to ensure EV and hybrid batteries for at least eight years or 100,000 miles and California 150,000 miles. How long will it take for the two speed transmission to trickle down to Porsche's sister company Volkswagen EVs as a standard component, 3yrs?, 5yrs?

 

[pablolie]

I do have a Nissan Leaf as a city car. I keep it parked at my girlfriend's, since she decided to live car-less and I actually ride one of my motorcycles day to say, and have a fun gas-powered car also. I'll be quite honest - I also left it at my GF's because I find the practicality of EVs questionable. When I need a car, it's typically for hauling duties or for long distance drives - say spend a day in the wine country around here, or dash down to LA. Can't do that with an EV. The Leaf doesn't have the necessary range with the 210 mile spec, and the charging takes too long. It's OK for local duties and 70 mile weekend dashes. But the limitations often make me think that, at the times it is ideal for duty, I might as well just Uber around.

Also, because they are extremely un-entertaining to drive. I do have friends with the top Tesla S - and yes the acceleration is exhilarating, but the overall dynamic behavior if you take it to a twisty road is very so-so. The Leaf isn't a bargain for what it really is -I think the bill was $40k-ish- but the top level Tesla S IMO is way too much money for way too little entertainment. If I was forced to spend that much, I'd favor a Porsche 911 every time.

In a nutshell I think I wasted $ buying a Nissan Leaf. But the GF loves it for the rare occasions she needs a car, and it also means I can ride a motorcycle to her place (she refuses to sit on a motorcycle) and we can leave go somewhere else in the car (unless she forgot to charge it, half the time she waits for me to be there).

PS:The Leaf also has a so-so audio system.

 

[Blumlein 88]

I do have a Nissan Leaf as a city car. I keep it parked at my girlfriend's, since she decided to live car-less and I actually ride one of my motorcycles day to say, and have a fun gas-powered car also. I'll be quite honest - I also left it at my GF's because I find the practicality of EVs questionable. When I need a car, it's typically for hauling duties or for long distance drives - say spend a day in the wine country around here, or dash down to LA. Can't do that with an EV. The Leaf doesn't have the necessary range with the 210 mile spec, and the charging takes too long. It's OK for local duties and 70 mile weekend dashes. But the limitations often make me think that, at the times it is ideal for duty, I might as well just Uber around.

Also, because they are extremely un-entertaining to drive. I do have friends with the top Tesla S - and yes the acceleration is exhilarating, but the overall dynamic behavior if you take it to a twisty road is very so-so. The Leaf isn't a bargain for what it really is -I think the bill was $40k-ish- but the top level Tesla S IMO is way too much money for way too little entertainment. If I was forced to spend that much, I'd favor a Porsche 911 every time.

In a nutshell I think I wasted $ buying a Nissan Leaf. But the GF loves it for the rare occasions she needs a car, and it also means I can ride a motorcycle to her place (she refuses to sit on a motorcycle) and we can leave go somewhere else in the car (unless she forgot to charge it, half the time she waits for me to be there).

PS:The Leaf also has a so-so audio system.

So do you have a level 2 charging setup where you store the Leaf? Are there no fast charging areas if you wanted to use it for some days in the wine country?