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Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

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Neutron

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I know it sounds far-fetched a little, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out several options, all of them on the down side of course.

Confidence and trust are nice, science is real. Science doesn't deal with human emotions...Mr. Nice guy or Mr. Bad guy.

Miracles? Science doesn't deal with miracles either.

i have been reading about police across the globe breaking into many many parties during lockdown. I have no confidence in people carrying out self-protection practices until the disease dies down after vaccines were distributed.
 

North_Sky

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https://www.sbs.com.au/news/who-say...ake-up-call-as-cases-top-30-million-worldwide

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54189575

I'm sure all people reading and contributing to this thread saw that coming.
...If you follow the stats like I do.

In my own country the number of new cases is also on the rise (four digits).
Heavy fines are given to people in large gatherings (more than 25) and individuals not wearing a mask. I mean heavy fines...not few peanuts...$10,000 and up to $100,000 to organizers and $750 to individuals. Take that!
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/09/17/ontario-limit-social-gatherings/amp/

In my area too...Victoria. ...Fines of $2,000
And there are some hot shots (CEO billionaires) who think they have special privileges ...
Strictly on a serious public health related issue ...
 
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North_Sky

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It’s challenging in decision making in this very time. It’s unlikely they can wait for scientists to nail things down before economy slides too much. No one can experiment with a country’s fate either.

We are replying on the leaders to take responsibility now.

It's challenging big time.

We rely on science, not clowns.
 

Neutron

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It's challenging big time.

We rely on science, not clowns.

science is crucial. But often scientists arrive the party too late to provide solution that address problems in multiple areas.

Another large scale lockdown is going to be a disaster. And I can see those in charge are trying not to let that happen.

Well at least TSLA can recover quickly from deep falls... some relief it is.
 

Aerith Gainsborough

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North_Sky

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https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...2020/2020-09-16-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
See page 8.

Still below 1% positive rate of tests. No statistically relevant rise there. Stop being fooled my mass media.

You guys in Germany are doing great, only few more new cases daily (in the four digits), but more than what it was...keep it up...I mean down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

No herd immunity strategy in Germany, no sir.
 
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Aerith Gainsborough

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Herd immunity is not a valid approach with infection rates this low.

Napkin math:
If we assume 10.000 free beds in intensive care units (currently around 8.8K unoccupied) and an average stay of 7 days per intensive care patient with a quota of 10% of the positive cases needing ICU treatment, we end up at:
10.000 x 10 = 100K infected per week -> ~ 14K infected per day. As a number we must not exceed.

Assuming a 75% herd immunity threshold of 82M people, that would be 61.5M people needing to be infected.
At the rate above that would take 4392 days or 12 years.

Brute force herd immunity never was a valid strategy, if you want to make sure that you do not exceed intensive care capacity.
Even more so if the immunity after infection is not permanent / lasts at least a decade.

Lets not even start about running the facilities and staff at their maximum limit for a decade...
 

mansr

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If that is indeed the case, we should expect human life expectancy to plummet to 19 century levels in the next couple of years and stay there indefinitely. 55 year average life expectancy here we come. Guess we won't have to worry about the long term solvency of the Medicare or Social Security trust funds either.
That's the most ridiculous thing I've read all day, and I say this after reading the DSD thread.
 

raistlin65

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science is crucial. But often scientists arrive the party too late to provide solution that address problems in multiple areas.

Another large scale lockdown is going to be a disaster. And I can see those in charge are trying not to let that happen.

Well at least TSLA can recover quickly from deep falls... some relief it is.

The sad thing is that thinking about another lockdown would be unnecessary at this point if society would simply follow the social distancing recommendations of epidemiologists.

For example, colleges would not be struggling with growing infection rates if college students would quit having parties.

Personally, I'd like to see reckless endangerment the standard charge for anyone who hosts an event where a large numbers of people attend. That might calm that down some. But of course that's not the only issue we have regarding civil disobedience ofsocial distancing measures.
 

Vasr

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Personally, I'd like to see reckless endangerment the standard charge for anyone who hosts an event where a large numbers of people attend.

Some in the US might accuse you of making a political statement. ;)
 
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lashto

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As the time goes, the most dangerous unknown are the mutations. AFAICS, there are only two serious ones:
  • D614G : from ~March, more infectious but not deadlier.
  • ∆382: newer and described as "milder".
Did I miss some?
 
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Vasr

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Still below 1% positive rate of tests. No statistically relevant rise there. Stop being fooled my mass media.

Painting media broadbrush like this is unhelpful and in the long run dangerous. It is also very condescending to people.

Pointing out issues with any specific news/source would be better. There are valid concerns of a second wave.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...19-cases-rising-by-6000-per-day-idUSKBN2690TM

Asked if a second national lockdown was on the cards, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said hospital admissions were doubling every eight days but that a crucial estimate modelled by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) would be key.
Its model pointed to about 6,000 new cases a day in England in the week to Sept. 10, up from 3,200 cases per day in the previous week, with the North West and London seen as hotspots.

The UK said reproduction “R” number of COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom has risen to a range of 1.1-1.4 from last week’s figure of 1.0-1.2.
“We’re seeing clear signs this virus is now spreading widely across all age groups and I am particularly worried by the increase in rates of admission to hospital and intensive care among older people,” said Yvonne Doyle, Medical Director at Public Health England.
 

Vasr

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EU seems to be moving the other way. Germany will probably start allowing 20% attendance on football stadions

I think masks and social distancing being mandatory and in open air venues pose much lower risk than indoor events without social distancing and no mask rules. The latter is what is keeping the pandemic very much alive within undisciplined demographics and even countries.

Of course whether a soccer crowd can be disciplined enough to follow the rules is a different thing... :)
 
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lashto

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Of course whether a soccer crowd can be disciplined enough to follow the rules is a different thing... :)
Football fans are known for drinking the first 4 beers very orderly :)

Hopefully it will work fine, people really need to 'ventilate' a bit. The global psyche is creaking quite loud already and nowadays I am more worried about that than the virus
 

Aerith Gainsborough

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Painting media broadbrush like this is unhelpful and in the long run dangerous. It is also very condescending to people.
Unfortunately, right now in Germany, there is no real objectivity in the usual mass media channels.

YMMV if you are referring to other nations media of course, I do not actively follow them. I was referring to the German situation only.
 

North_Sky

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We all live in different countries with various cultures and measures against COVID-19.
I can only speak for my own country where I live every single day.
My opinion is only valid as the life I experience in my own backyard.
I cannot give an opinion based on what they show on the news...that'll be the day.

The other week I saw an opinionated man who would not wear a mask.
I let it go because it was futile.
A kid was fine $2,000 for having a party @ his apartment.
My doctor office is closed due to COVID-19.

This year is not like last year.

As for what they say on the news media, have fun ... just check the CDC, WHO, the latest scientific data by the utmost professional health organizations in the world, including North America (Mexico, USA, Canada), South America, Europe, India, China, Russia, etc.

We could have saved lives...many of them. But we didn't because we all know why.
The balance of our future is in our hands, with the instructions of our most reliable sources...professional doctors and nurses, health scientist experts, epidemiologists, experts in epidemics and pandemics, ...and nobody else.

The economy? Let the ultra rich take care of it, distribute their wealth among the poor and vulnerable. TRUST them...NOT!

It amazes me big time the crystal clear truth surfacing everywhere on our planet in the year 2020 since this pandemic started (officially in March).
Some people (important jobs) are on a completely derailing track, a catastrophic path.
We should be able to stop them, arrest them and put them in jail.
But we can't; we don't have that power, that legal right.

Can trillion of dollars save lives? ...Stop the spreading?
About sending masks by the mail to everyone?
WHO is going to save and protect your Mom, who?

Do you read the news, or do you go out to check what's going on nearby in town?
How do you grocery shopping, put gas in your car/truck?
Do you like go fishing? ...Vavationing with the family on the West coast?
Do you like flying to Italy, France, New Zealand, Fiji Islands, Spain, Switzerland, Indonesia, ... for amazing scenic vacations? ...Swimming in crystal emerald waters? ...Room service from 5-star resorts?
 

Canuck57

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Unfortunately, right now in Germany, there is no real objectivity in the usual mass media channels.

YMMV if you are referring to other nations media of course, I do not actively follow them. I was referring to the German situation only.

Fake news? Where have I heard that before?
 

phoenixdogfan

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That's the most ridiculous thing I've read all day, and I say this after reading the DSD thread.
Riiighhhtttt. Especially when it's already the second leading cause of death in the US, and only 6 million have been infected.

And for someone who's been cavalierly advocating the world go the "herd mentality" route, that's an indication you really can't hear yourself. Nothing more!
 
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