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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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maxxevv

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... IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths ...

https://globalhealth.washington.edu...s-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-ihme
http://www.healthdata.org/research-...-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

That's morbidly scary. :eek:

Almost Armageddon level stuff ! But I sincerely hope it doesn't come to anywhere near those numbers. I was just posturing with an old friend (I have known him since I was 10) regarding the final infection numbers worldwide just in mid-February. I was saying grimly that numbers would already be pretty bad if it crossed 100,000~120,000 in infection numbers. Over 100,000 deaths would be off the charts! . :eek:
 

QMuse

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Capture.JPG
 

MediumRare

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I found one of Maty's recent posts interesting, the one on social differences. Here too, and perhaps not surprisingly, something similar seems to be the case, even though these are only proxy data. As I mentioned before, the vast majority of Dutch corona patients on the intensive care are obese. Obesity is characteristic of the poor, so I would suspect the majority of patients to be from the poorer strata of society. Future research will be needed to validate this working hypothesis, but it may well be true.
Given greater social inequality in the US, would similar social differences also show in the US?
In general, poor incomes relate to higher levels of poor behavior (smoking, drugs, diet), poor quality of health care and poor outcomes (life expectancy) so anything different would be a discontinuity. Also, the idea that Covisan-19 isn’t so bad because it only kills people with underlying conditions is absurd. All health conditions are interactions. Diabetes, heart disease, stroke, are all interrelated just to pick an obvious example.
 

graz_lag

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That's morbidly scary. :eek:

Almost Armageddon level stuff ! But I sincerely hope it doesn't come to anywhere near those numbers. I was just posturing with an old friend (I have known him since I was 10) regarding the final infection numbers worldwide just in mid-February. I was saying grimly that numbers would already be pretty bad if it crossed 100,000~120,000 in infection numbers. Over 100,000 deaths would be off the charts! . :eek:

Very scary, indeed ...

“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”
 

maty

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Possibly.

But hygiene in a poor / poorly maintained neighbourhood/locality cannot be overlooked either.

Statistics repeat year after year that we Spaniards are among the cleanest among all Europeans. I suppose the same will happen in Italy, due to the climate and the heritage of the Romans I say.
 

maxxevv

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Statistics repeat year after year that we Spaniards are among the cleanest among all Europeans. I suppose the same will happen in Italy, due to the climate and the heritage of the Romans I say.

Oh, you misunderstood me there.

I meant that old buildings / sewage works can be by themselves sources of virus spread. It doesn't have anything to do with people's hygiene habits. @andymok's diagram (unfortunately in chinese) explains one of the possible scenarios for it to happen. Independent of personal hygiene habits.
 

Shadrach

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UK ... Engineering firms have said that the UK may not have enough ventilators when coronavirus cases reach their peak, the BBC reports.

The UK has just over 8,000 ventilators, but it is estimated the country will need 30,000 during the peak of the crisis, which is expected in two weeks’ time. Manufacturers have said they will be unable to meet that deadline ...
This illustrate one of the problems with the curve flattening strategy. It only works if the flattened curve doesn't exceed the provision of health care.
As soon as the health care system fails, the model is useless.
Some might argue that instead of pouring billion of dollars into the economy a better result might be to pour that money into health care, advise people and companies on safe social and work practices and let people go to work.
There will be another virus. It's just a matter of time. A robust and felxible health care system with appropriate government investment might have avoided some of the current problems and could help in the future.
 

maty

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Correct

1. Sewage
2. Venting pipe
3. Anti-Syphon pipe
4. Trap

In Hong Kong, cases are (aerosolised) virus escape from 2. Venting pipe and leaking joints. 2003 SARS cases were 4 dried trap.
Virus get aerosolised when flushed, pressure differences send them everywhere.


View attachment 56174View attachment 56175View attachment 56176

That reminds me that thanks to our French neighbors, we are one of the few countries where there is a bidet in the bathroom. I know now that fashion is water toilets thanks to the Japanese.

In any relatively modern Spanish house there is a bidet if the bathroom is the size that allows it.

No, the problem has been in the inability of our current rulers and their criminal negligence in not preparing the country.

Spanish society is becoming more mediocre every year, as I suppose happens in most western countries, so the probability of choosing mediocre rulers is greater.
 
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andymok

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However, if we all wore masks, this would greatly reduce the number of cases in the US. People can show no symptoms and still cause spread; imagine if those people were masks?

We could all be back to work already and life goes on. lol
 

Frank Dernie

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In any relatively modern Spanish house there is a bidet if the bathroom is the size that allows it.
After living in France I had a bidet fitted next to both our upstairs toilets. I hate toilets in the bathroom, however, so the baths and toilets are in separate rooms.
The downstairs toilet room wasn't big enough though.
We are sufficiently far from neighbours to (hopefully) make transfer from soil pipes to be unlikely...
 

Prana Ferox

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Prana Ferox

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Another study hopefully showing effectiveness of chloroquine and z-packs.

The team went on to say: “Thus, in addition to its direct therapeutic role, this association can play a role in controlling the disease epidemic by limiting the duration of virus shedding, which can last for several weeks in the absence of specific treatment.
...

In conclusion, we confirm the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine associated with azithromycin in the treatment of COVID-19 and its potential effectiveness in the early impairment of contagiousness. Given the urgent therapeutic need to manage this disease with effective and safe drugs and given the negligible cost of both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, we believe that other teams should urgently evaluate this therapeutic strategy both to avoid the spread of the disease and to treat patients before severe irreversible respiratory complications take hold,” the team concluded.

This is going to be controversial as this study doesn't have a proper control group.
 

maty

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https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/28/actualidad/1585424225_981371.html

Evolution of duplication time
This is the time that elapses until the number of deaths is doubled
covid-19-evolucion-tiempo-duplicacion.png


[ One of the lessons this crisis will leave is a necessity: we need better information management systems. The Ministry of Health and the other administrations can multiply their ability to collect, process and disseminate statistical information. As we are checking, data is not a luxury, but a tool against an epidemic: it is the basis for detecting spotlights, measuring their depth, tracking their pace and acting fast. These systems will be useful in the next crisis, but they could also be useful much sooner.

When confinement measures are relaxed, having the ability to act accurately and quickly will be critical to prevent a resurgent of the virus. ]
 

Wes

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I wasn't going to bother posting any further comment and I'll take the chance of getting banned for not trotting along with the hysteria.
ASR is supposed to be an evidence based site. It's why I joined. There are hundreds of subjectivist style sites that completely ignore the scientific data and empty your wallet with a form of of hysteria, all based around 'I hear this so it is so.'
There are pages of data on past epidemics that anyone who is at all interested in evidence based reasoning can access.
I rather expected to see some of this in the posting on ASR regarding the current virus, but it seems that common sense and reason has deserted many.
Much like in the world of HiFi, there are a few voices that tell you to measure, reason and build a statistical picture form evidence rather than the hyperbole that has infected the world of HiFi. Instead it seems many prefer to soak up the constant barrage of out of context graphs and information posted by some in this thread and indulge in political and idealogical slanging matches.

I've been polite in my comment. The same can't be said for some of the replies to what I've written.
I am certainly not denying the human tragedy involved in this epidemic, but people seem to have lost their sense of proportion.
So, below is some evidence. These are not figures concocted by some communist plot. These are figures widely accept as accurate withing thhe data gathering limitations.
I'm just going to present figures for the USA here. The tragedy of the hysteria will be much much worse in other countries.
It is almost impossible to give an accurate start point for infection in the USA. Flu stats are generally presented by season.

As of March 2020. 2,229 deaths have been attributed to Covid-19 in the USA.
Worldwide in this season, or over the last three months 30,935 deaths have been attributed to Covid-19.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/

Last years flu season in the USA alone it is estimated that 80,000 people died from 'the flu.'

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Why didn't the world grind to a halt last year?

It is pretty clear that you don't understand exponents.

Do the math.
 

amirm

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Why didn't the world grind to a halt last year?
Because I took the Flu shot and could sleep easy not worrying about catching it and having someone stuff a tube in my throat to breath. Assuming said tube existed....
 

maty

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Zinc supplementation to improve treatment outcomes among children diagnosed with respiratory infections by WHO technical staff, April 2011
https://www.who.int/elena/titles/bbc/zinc_pneumonia_children/en/


Zinc: a new risk factor for pneumonia in the elderly?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2854541/

[ Conclusion

The results from our observational study, 111 in addition to findings by other studies described above, suggest that having inadequate stores of zinc might be a risk factor of pneumonia in the elderly. Elderly with low serum zinc concentrations might therefore benefit from zinc supplementation. Such a measure has the potential to reduce not only the number and duration of pneumonia episodes and the total amount and duration of antibiotic use due to pneumonia, but also all-cause mortality in the elderly.

Based on our careful review of the literature and given the upper safe limit of zinc a, dose of 30 mg elemental zinc per day might be adequate to improve immune function, and reduce the risk of infections.

However, it needs to be emphasized that in order to provide conclusive evidence to support this recommendation, and to substantiate the findings described above, randomized, double blind, controlled studies, with adequate number of participants, are needed to determine the efficacy of zinc supplementation as a potential low cost intervention to reduce morbidity and mortality due to pneumonia in this vulnerable population.

The results of such studies have the potential to significantly improve the health span and quality of life for the elderly, and to result in substantial savings on the order of millions of dollars, which might be saved in costs associated with the health care of the elderly, in particular elderly residing in NHs. ]


Zinc Levels in community acquired pneumonia in hospitalized patients; a case control study, April 2016
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0422763815301217

[ Summary

Our study revealed a definite relation of low serum levels of zinc with community acquired pneumonia and there is definite decrease in serum zinc levels as the age increases. Considering the morbidity, mortality, hospital stay and financial burden and to reduce the use of antibiotics for pneumonia, especially in developing countries like ours, serum zinc levels should be routinely measured and thereby supplemented. ]
 
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