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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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BDWoody

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Interesting analysys of CFR/IFR

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Emerging evidence suggests many more people are infected. than tested. In Vo Italy, at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, about 3%, had already been infected – most were completely asymptomatic.

We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at larget, and misclassification of deaths we consider COVID-19 IFR lies somewhere between 0.1% and 0.26%.*
 

Jmudrick

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Three points for you to consider:
- Civid-19 did not REPLACE the flu, it is IN ADDITION. That is why the heath care systems are being overwhelmed.
- A far greater proportion of cases require hospitalization even for future survivors. The experience of having the disease is traumatic for both the ill and for family members.
- you are not appreciating the exponential nature of the advancing infections.

There have for other viruses been inoculations which have prevented some deaths. You would need data to make a comparison.

If there were innoculations for Covid-19 we wouldn't need complete shutdowns would we. Which you know. Stop the trolling.
 

MediumRare

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I don't have any data on death unpleasantness.
None of what you've written has anything to do with the data.
Then you are working on incomplete data. "Not everything measured matters and not everything that matters is measured." Science is not about repeating incomplete measurements endlessly, it’s about discovering previously unknown but critical things to measure.
 

Shadrach

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If there were innoculations for Covid-19 we wouldn't need complete shutdowns would we. Which you know. Stop the trolling.
My point is that there were and have been inoculations for some flu viruses and they effect the mortality rate of earlier epidemics that may have a comparable effect to the isolation policy currently being used to reduce the infection rate.
 

Shadrach

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Then you are working on incomplete data. "Not everything measured matters and not everything that matters is measured." Science is not about repeating incomplete measurements endlessly, it’s about discovering previously unknown but critical things to measure.
We are always working with incomplete data.
When I was taking my first degree science was defined roughly as an attempt to understand the world around us using empirical methods.
Perhaps when you did your science degree there was a different definition.
 

Jmudrick

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My point is that there were and have been inoculations for some flu viruses and they effect the mortality rate of earlier epidemics that may have a comparable effect to the isolation policy currently being used to reduce the infection rate.

If that's the case so what. This shutdown is based upon the combined lack of immunization, high contagion, and mortality, and the threat posed to an inadequate medical system to handle the volume of cases absent radical action. Period. How immunization was successful in dealing with a past virus is not a relevant consideration.
 

Thomas savage

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The reality is even with the counter measures being employed we are still having to build huge temporary hospitals , put corpses in massive temporary mortuaries the sheer mass of bodies is causing a logistical nightmare.

I can't remember that happening every Winter, if flu was that bad we would all be better prepared .

Fact is without any measures you'd have scores of patients dying in their homes , on hospital trollies and healthcare systems would be under intolerable strain , even more so than they already are.

Iv no clue what @Shadrach point Is ? Bemoaning the lack of Data, a argument to do nothing ? Comparing current number of known deaths to the flu even though this outbreak has just happened in the US in the last few weeks and normal flu dose not cause you to drown in your own bodily fluids and overwhelm ICU capacity.

It's new , it's spreading at Alarming rate and we can't get rid of the bodies fast enough.

We need a vaccine and we need to put measures in place to prevent this kind of event causing so much economic turmoil in future.
 

MediumRare

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We are always working with incomplete data.
When I was taking my first degree science was defined roughly as an attempt to understand the world around us using empirical methods.
Perhaps when you did your science degree there was a different definition.
I guess Einstein wasn’t doing science when he was wasting his time in 1905. After all, he had no data. If you cannot see what others here can, consider it might be your blindness. Your implication that your science degree gives you special powers of insight is another error on your part. Many of us here have advanced degrees from the world’s most prestigious institutions, as well as considerable professional experience, patents, etc. Many of us teach PhD students in the sciences. You have zero insight into my background or scientific capabilities.
 

Veri

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Comparing current number of known deaths to the flu even though this outbreak has just happened in the US in the last few weeks and normal flu dose not cause you to drown in your own bodily fluids and overwhelm ICU capacity.

It's new, it's spreading at Alarming rate and we can't get rid of the bodies fast enough.

We need a vaccine and we need to put measures in place to prevent this kind of event causing so much economic turmoil in future.

Thanks Thomas. Exactly.
 

maxxevv

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Note too that the author somehow omitted major infected countries such as the rest of European ones besides Italy.

The most important paragraph of the whole article is at the bottom:


"Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute for professional medical advice.

Estimating Case fatality rates in the early stage of outbreaks is subject to considerable uncertainties, the estimates are likely to change as more data emerges. "
 

Thomas savage

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We need to dial back the personal insults and general aggravation.

There's a valid argument despite all that's observable our societies reaction to this might cause more long term harm than letting it play out. That's a huge gamble , no one's got the political capital to follow. There is a lack of solid data too.

There's also the fact public money is being used to soften the blow on private companies who themselves have huge cash reserves . The UK housing industry are currently shut down on the cheap thanks to Jo tax payer , I'm jobless and the value of my trade will be reduced by a sobering margin. I fear economically we will be sent back to the 70's by this.

These are arguments for other threads .

Let's keep moving forward with this thread and try not to get caught up in circular arguments.

Some will have to agree to disagree.
 

BDWoody

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The most important paragraph of the whole article is at the bottom:


"Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked


So, shouldn't that be the standard for everything posted then?
 

maxxevv

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So, shouldn't that be the standard for everything posted then?

I only highlighted that because its numbers are so far left field of what flies in the common conversation.

It starkly reminds me of the bad idea (relying on herd immunity) that the UK government wanted to embark on before realising that too many people will die before that number is anywhere near plausible. Wonder if its from the same group or related group of people though.
 

Shadrach

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Note too that the author somehow omitted major infected countries such as the rest of European ones besides Italy.

The most important paragraph of the whole article is at the bottom:


"Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute for professional medical advice.

Estimating Case fatality rates in the early stage of outbreaks is subject to considerable uncertainties, the estimates are likely to change as more data emerges. "
This is the case for much of the scientific/medical evidence that policy decisions are being made on.
 

maty

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España recibe hoy 10.000 equipos de protección individual de República Checa
[Spanish] https://www.elperiodico.com/es/soci...-epi-otan-republica-checa-coronavirus-7909227

Spain today receives 10,000 personal protective equipment from Czech Republic
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200329/llegada-espana-equipos-proteccion-individual-epi-otan-republica-checa-coronavirus-7909227

[ A total of 10,000 personal protective equipment (PPE) will arrive in Spain on Sunday on a plane from the Czech Republic in response to the Government's request to NATO for allies to provide health equipment to deal with the coronavirus...

Last Tuesday, a plane from China with more than 100 tons of medical supplies, including respirators and millions of masks, landed in the Czech Republic to help combat covid-19. The flight was managed by the Czech Government through NATO's International Strategic Air Transport Solution, a programme currently involving nine partner countries: the Czech Republic, Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

This material will be added to the shipment of 1.2 million masks that arrived in Madrid on Saturday from China in a centralized purchase from the Ministry of Health. In recent hours also arrived a shipment of 400,000 masks for Catalonia, purchase managed by the Generalitat... ]
 

Shadrach

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Yesterday, in the village nearest to where I live, two people died who will go towards the Covid-19 statistics.
One women who was 97 years old with no other reported health problems and one man 82 who had diabetes and heart problems.
Someone will make a judgment on cause of death. At 97 years old, old age would seem to be the underlying cause. A similar argument could be made for the man with the other health problems.
These are longstanding Catalan families. To help understand the way they live think of an extended Italian family.
The news of their deaths was given to the person I spoke with by their son who was out buying food.
None of the other members of either household were tested for Covid-19.
In the UK, I was shocked to learn that the NHS staff are not tested on a regular basis (preferably daily) for Covid-19. They only get tested when they show symptoms.
Where my daughter is in hospital the staff are not tested for Covid-19 either.
Measures like testing the people who care for the sick would seem like the most basic common sense.
 

Martin

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If you're going to use CDC stats, use CDC stats...

Common flu US mortality rates:

2018-19 - 39.5 million illnesses 34,200 deaths - 0.087% death rate
2017-18 - 45 million illnesses 61,000 deaths - 0.136% death rate (revised from 79,000 initially reported which your source rounded up to 80,000)
2016-17 - 29 million illnesses & 38.000 deaths - 0.131% death rate

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

COVID-19 US mortality rates:

Current estimate is 1.63% (1.56-1.71)

Source: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

So COVID-19 is 12 times more deadly than the flu for the year you referenced.

It's the illnesses number we are trying to control. We don't want 45,000,000 people ill with COVID-19 (733,500 dead).

Martin
 

RayDunzl

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Yesterday, in the village nearest to where I live, two people died who will go towards the Covid-19 statistics.
One women who was 97 years old with no other reported health problems and one man 82 who had diabetes and heart problems.
Someone will make a judgment on cause of death.

Made me look:

"Death certificates often classify causes of death as immediate, contributing, and underlying. Immediate cause of death is typically defined as the disease or injury directly leading to death, contributing causes of death are defined as diseases or injuries that contributed to the fatal outcome, and underlying cause of death is defined as the disease or injury that initiated the train of morbid events leading directly to death or the circumstances of the accident or violence that produced the fatal injury. Although many patients have an acute cardiac or respiratory event as the immediate cause of death, underlying cause is typically adopted for tabulation of mortality statistics by organizations including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO)."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2441601/
 

maty

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El hospital de Ifema visto desde dentro
[Spanish] https://www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-hospital-ifema-visto-desde-40486559874-20200329124950_galeria.html

Ifema hospital seen from within
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?re...desde-40486559874-20200329124950_galeria.html

007-L1010193-ko7E--1348x900@abc.jpg
 
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