What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[digicidal]

There is very little news out of North Korea. The virus is in all neighboring countries and there were a couple of vague reports it entered NK. I would not think NK would have what is considered SOTA health care systems.

Not only do they not have SOTA health care... they have a majority urbanized population as well though exactly how much is uncertain - ~60% by the late 80's it seems. Although statistics are naturally horrible and unreliable being mostly based on conjecture and extremely out-dated research.

On the upside (if you can call it that) since they have virtually no significant trade (outside of military equipment and raw materials) and almost entirely restricted travel... they are a bit better protected than most modern countries against contagious diseases from outside. Once inside it's borders however... it could really be a nightmare! I could totally see an official response being to simply incinerate anyone with a fever... which wouldn't just be inhumane - it would be effectively useless in preventing transmission (and assures no one would voluntarily seek medical care if ill).

 

[g29]

Here are a few NK reports from Radio Free Asia including quarantines, repatriations, closed borders and trade suspensions.

 

[digicidal]

Here are a few NK reports from Radio Free Asia including quarantines, repatriations, closed borders and trade suspensions.

Yep... this definitely doesn't sound (or look) like SOTA health care... nor compassionate care. In fact, they couldn't care less it seems...

And they're almost statistically guaranteed to have at least one case if this article is accurate in it's estimates:

“An average of more than 500 North Korean workers per day were returning to North Korea between Jan. 20 to 24,” said the source.

Although, thankfully, the border is decently removed from "ground zero" but still... not a minute chance by any stretch. Considering 81 confirmed cases in Jilin, and 111 in Liaoning... both of which are within a day's train/bus ride from the border.

 

[North_Sky]

Body count: Over 1,100

Google it, pick your favorite source of news outlets, or go WHO

 

[RayDunzl]

Perspective:

China Death Rate

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/death-rate

7.402 per 1000 people per year

China Population - estimate - 1,437,210,885

1,437,210,885 / 1000 = 1,437,210 thousands

1,437,210 thousands x 7.402 per thousand = 10,638,228 deaths per year, 29,145 per day.

Reported Virus deaths in China so far = 1,115 deaths / 10,638,228 per year = 0.01048% of "normal" yearly deaths, though a bit concentrated in a local area, and due to an unexpected cause.

---

"Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year."

---

Opinion:

I might be surprised if the total deaths from flu this year isn't less than typical, due to awaremess and additional care taken by people to avoid it.

 

[North_Sky]

It could take 18 months before they find a vaccine for COVID-19
• https://time.com/5782284/who-name-coronavirus-covid-19/

18 multiplied by 30 (days) equals ....
That number of days multiplied by roughly .... (average number of departed daily).

In 18 months from now we pray that it won't be expanding globally too badly.

There is hope when a vaccine is avail and all things return to normal...the usual news.
So far we're doing tremendously well here in North America; the economy is in top shape, the number of jobs looks splendid, we are operating full steam.
Things cannot look any better...everybody's happy and healthy and wealthy. Equality and justice for all ... biologically speaking.

We live on the greatest continent of the planet; with palm trees, coconuts, avocados, bananas and mangoes.

 

[Ron Texas]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trav...-america-cruise-ship-disembarking/4714464002/

39 more infected on the Diamond Princess.

 

[sweetchaos]

WHO holds briefing (streamed 2 hours ago):

Spoiler: Youtube

WHO Director-General said:

The number of newly confirmed cases reported from China has stabilized over the past week, but that must be interpreted with extreme caution.
This outbreak could still go in any direction.

 

[g29]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trav...-america-cruise-ship-disembarking/4714464002/

39 more infected on the Diamond Princess.

The quarantine period is going to keep getting extended as long as the floating petri dish keeps producing active cultures.

 

[raistlin65]

The quarantine period is going to keep getting extended as long as the floating petri dish keeps producing active cultures.

I wonder how much of it is new infection transfer since the ship made efforts to contain the virus vs. long incubation period for people infected before anyone knew what was going on?

 

[RayDunzl]

Nice pop in China's reported numbers today...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[sweetchaos]

Nice pop in China's reported numbers today...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


View attachment 49990

Hubei Province changed how they're classifying the new cases, which added over 14k new cases in one day.

As of 3 hours ago, Hubei Province officially said:

Google translated this as:

With the deepening of understanding of new coronavirus pneumonia and the accumulation of experience in diagnosis and treatment, in view of the characteristics of the epidemic in Hubei Province, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the "Diagnosis and Treatment Plan for New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia (Trial (Version) "adds" clinical diagnosis "to the case diagnosis classification in Hubei Province, so that patients can receive standardized treatment according to confirmed cases as early as possible to further improve the success rate of treatment. According to the plan, Hubei Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to the new diagnosis classification. In order to be consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces across the country, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases for publication.

If anyone can read Chinese (not sure if its posted in Cantonese or Mandarin), can you verify that the translation is correct?

 

[g29]

Nice pop in China's reported numbers today...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


View attachment 49990

Didn't they just report the numbers had "stabilized" ???

 

[North_Sky]

Didn't they just report the numbers had "stabilized" ???

Yes, from WHO Director general (post #171 just above).

 

[Ron Texas]

Thank you @RayDunzl and @sweetchaos. This is a serious new development. I now believe the two day hiatus of reporting increased infections was due to holding new reports in anticipation of the policy change. I can't read Chinese, but their national language is Mandarin. Cantonese is spoken in Hong Kong. The Google translation is typical of Chinese and Japanese language machine translations in that it makes very little sense. Don't rely on it.

 

[g29]

Yes, from WHO Director general (post #171 just above).

Health officials in Hubei province said 242 people had died from the flu-like virus on Wednesday, the fastest rise in the daily count since the pathogen was identified in December. ... The previous highest rise in the toll was 103 on February 10.

Must be the new math. Note to self, "stabilized" equates to a 30% spike.

Thank you @RayDunzl and @sweetchaos. This is a serious new development. I now believe the two day hiatus of reporting increased infections was due to holding new reports in anticipation of the policy change. I can't read Chinese, but their national language is Mandarin. Cantonese is spoken in Hong Kong. The Google translation is typical of Chinese and Japanese language machine translations in that it makes very little sense. Don't rely on it.

Looks like they just rolled the "suspected" counts in to the "confirmed" counts. The "suspected" counts are now empty from the realtime charts.

 

[sweetchaos]

More details:

1. Hubei province, up till 3 hours ago, was only classifying "confirmed cases" as those people who were tested using the "test kits" (standard nucleic acid test) . These test kits are sent to lab, and confirmed after the lab results came back.

2. There are lots of people who never tested using the "test kit", but instead had a CT scan. The doctors were looking for signs of pneumonia. Once an infected lung is identified in a person, this is officially added to the list of "clinically diagnosed cases".

3. Hubei province is now including "clinically diagnosed cases" as part of the "confirmed cases", which explains the 14k added cases.

Source (Twitter, Eunice Yoon, from CNBC)

 

[sweetchaos]

As of 2 hours ago:

Zhangwan District (wiki), district of the city of Shiyan, Hubei, which has a population of 399,000 is at a complete lockdown.

Source: baidu.com (link shown below)

I haven't see this level of lockdown yet.

 

[Ron Texas]

CNN just reported another 44 confirmed infections on the Diamond princess bringing the total to 219.

The big jump in reported infections in mainland China has been reported on CNN. Schools in Hong Kong are closed until March 16. What are working moms supposed to do with their kids?

Tons of news in the last few hours:

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-13-20-intl-hnk/index.html

I expect more in the morning US time.

 

[gikigill]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ubei-province-reports-242-new-deaths/11961602

Very reliable source.