• WANTED: Happy members who like to discuss audio and other topics related to our interest. Desire to learn and share knowledge of science required. There are many reviews of audio hardware and expert members to help answer your questions. Click here to have your audio equipment measured for free!

Zero-emission vehicles, their batteries & subsidies/rebates for them.- No politics regarding the subsidies!

Status
Not open for further replies.

Blumlein 88

Grand Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
20,521
Likes
37,050
Yeah luckily it started 20 years ago so a third of century will probably be okay. The Prius first went on sale in Japan in 1997. Many EVs are out now in spite of shortages. $6/gal gas and Zoom is also helping the cause.
The backlog in EVs was already in place prior to $6/gal gasoline (only that high in California I'll note). Many is like more than a few. In the context of automobiles even a million isn't exactly market altering. More would be out without shortages. Demand and supply are on an upward trajectory without any bans in place.
 

RayDunzl

Grand Contributor
Central Scrutinizer
Joined
Mar 9, 2016
Messages
13,198
Likes
16,981
Location
Riverview FL

Timcognito

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,349
Likes
12,546
Location
NorCal
The Prius is/was a hybrid and irrelevant to the EV issue.
Oh really I think it has a battery, an electric motor and uses regenerative charging that are components in in EVs. Maybe its not relevant but I think it is. Also if one looks at learning curve theory and how it was employed to make production of aircraft speed up in WWII a third of a century is a lot of time. EVs are being sold right now and there commitment by world auto manufacturers to to move in that direction. It looks like unions and patent litigation not technology are the biggest issue.
 

Timcognito

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,349
Likes
12,546
Location
NorCal
Paid $3.279 here yesterday.
Yes but a lot of posts were generated on California's move to EV only sales in 2035. I paid $6.09 last month and around $5.50 now here in Moss Beach, CA.
 

Blumlein 88

Grand Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
20,521
Likes
37,050
Oh really I think it has a battery, an electric motor and uses regenerative charging that are components in in EVs. Maybe its not relevant but I think it is. Also if one looks at learning curve theory and how it was employed to make production of aircraft speed up in WWII a third of a century is a lot of time. EVs are being sold right now and there commitment by world auto manufacturers to to move in that direction. It looks like unions and patent litigation not technology are the biggest issue.
Toyota also made some California only EV's in those days. Another proposed forced switch to EVs in the future for California was in the works and then never happened. They were sold eventually to people who leased them. Were around for a long time sometimes showing up on Ebay. Those early models used large NiMH batteries.

BTW, the California governor issued a similar executive order banning gasoline vehicles by 2035 almost exactly 2 years ago.

 
Last edited:

blueone

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
May 11, 2019
Messages
1,179
Likes
1,494
Location
USA
Paid $3.279 here yesterday.
At our local Costco, 87 Octane is $3.199 today, but the 91 Octane our cars take is $3.699. I'd like an electric car, but the economics make no sense for the time being. I'm still of a mind to consider something like a Chevy Bolt, but my wife gives me that "Are you kidding?" look. I can't even get her off of manual transmissions.
 

JeffS7444

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jul 21, 2019
Messages
2,347
Likes
3,507
California's decision to ban ICE cars by 2035 has got to be one of the most short-sighted decisions I've ever seen, and this is not a political statement, it is simple math and economics. Already oil refiners are under-investing in gasoline and diesel refinery capacity because US gasoline consumption is projected to peak soon:
Will anyone care about orderly market transitions in the event of a famine?
 

blueone

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
May 11, 2019
Messages
1,179
Likes
1,494
Location
USA
Will anyone care about orderly market transitions in the event of a famine?
A famine caused by what? There have been various famines across the globe for a lot of reasons, usually drought, for centuries. Are you talking about a famine in developed countries?
 

Timcognito

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,349
Likes
12,546
Location
NorCal
2035 is an ambitious goal and I got my deposit back waiting for my Volvo V60 Recharge for over a year. Still can't find one, except in Canada. Many good points made here. But no denying the climate crisis.
 

JeffS7444

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jul 21, 2019
Messages
2,347
Likes
3,507
A famine caused by what? There have been various famines across the globe for a lot of reasons, usually drought, for centuries. Are you talking about a famine in developed countries?
Why, is it inconceivable to you? The last time I checked, agriculture was very weather-dependent.
 

blueone

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
May 11, 2019
Messages
1,179
Likes
1,494
Location
USA
Why, is it inconceivable to you? The last time I checked, agriculture was very weather-dependent.
No, it is not inconceivable, but much of the land area in the US is actually getting a surplus of moisture now, not a drought. And if there was a food shortage in the US that is related to global warming, there's not a-n-y-t-h-i-n-g we could do about it in the near term. The US is responsible for substantially less than 15% of greenhouse gas emissions on a global basis. Even if the US went to net zero in months, which is impossible, it would make no difference in a famine. If you want something to worry about, taking Ukrainian food exports out of the market has more impact.
 

blueone

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
May 11, 2019
Messages
1,179
Likes
1,494
Location
USA
2035 is an ambitious goal and I got my deposit back waiting for my Volvo V60 Recharge for over a year. Still can't find one, except in Canada. Many good points made here. But no denying the climate crisis.
On your last point we are in complete agreement. The disagreement, especially relating to electric cars, is what to do about it. IMO, our sense of urgency about changing over to EVs in the US, as a country, is really very low. Read about attempts to run new high-voltage transmission lines from anywhere to anywhere in the US. No new transmission lines, not enough capacity for chargers. There's always some state or local group fighting every attempt to build new lines in court. While various governments could invoke eminent domain to solve the problems, elected officials hate that process, because seizing private lands or demanding unwanted easements often gets them unelected.
 

JeffS7444

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jul 21, 2019
Messages
2,347
Likes
3,507
No, it is not inconceivable, but much of the land area in the US is actually getting a surplus of moisture now, not a drought. And if there was a food shortage in the US that is related to global warming, there's not a-n-y-t-h-i-n-g we could do about it in the near term. The US is responsible for substantially less than 15% of greenhouse gas emissions on a global basis. Even if the US went to net zero in months, which is impossible, it would make no difference in a famine. If you want something to worry about, taking Ukrainian food exports out of the market has more impact.
Too much water, too little water, wrong timing, too erratic - it can all wreak havoc. No, USA cannot do everything alone, but it can do something.
 

Timcognito

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,349
Likes
12,546
Location
NorCal
On your last point we are in complete agreement. The disagreement, especially relating to electric cars, is what to do about it. IMO, our sense of urgency about changing over to EVs in the US, as a country, is really very low. Read about attempts to run new high-voltage transmission lines from anywhere to anywhere in the US. No new transmission lines, not enough capacity for chargers. There's always some state or local group fighting every attempt to build new lines in court. While various governments could invoke eminent domain to solve the problems, elected officials hate that process, because seizing private lands or demanding unwanted easements often gets them unelected.
Just wait till water rationing hits the southwest, wildfires and more freezing winters and floods in Texas. Public sentiment is changing about climate change. My county banned natural gas in new construction and renovation of homes. As Russia expedites Europe's transition away from fossil fuels these impediments will force change faster than one thinks possible. Electricity is in virtually every structure in the modern world and the sun shines and wind blows every day making electricity much cheaper than fossil fuel harnessing.
 

blueone

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
May 11, 2019
Messages
1,179
Likes
1,494
Location
USA
USA cannot do everything alone, but it can do something.
Well, see, this is a point of contention. It costs hundreds of billions or many trillions to do something, so some of us don't want to support doing something just for the point of doing something; that won't really address the problem. If the global warming crisis doesn't get a sufficiently global solution, and we spent our wealth on structural changes that don't make a difference, then there's less wealth available to implement the mitigations that might be necessary because warming is an insufficiently addressed reality.
 
Last edited:

blueone

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
May 11, 2019
Messages
1,179
Likes
1,494
Location
USA
Just wait till water rationing hits the southwest, wildfires and more freezing winters and floods in Texas. Public sentiment is changing about climate change. My county banned natural gas in new construction and renovation of homes. As Russia expedites Europe's transition away from fossil fuels these impediments will force change faster than one thinks possible. Electricity is in virtually every structure in the modern world and the sun shines and wind blows every day making electricity much cheaper than fossil fuel harnessing.
Actually, the US is already doing one of the world's most successful energy transitions - the transition from coal burning power plants to natural gas power plants. Gas is about a 50% reduction compared to coal in greenhouse gas emissions.

And the sun doesn't shine every day, and wind doesn't blow every day. That's a big problem that costs a lot of money to solve. The best way to provide base loads when there's insufficient sun or wind are natural gas turbines, but these often get blocked at the state or local level by the environmental lobbies, like where I live. Next summer we might get rolling blackouts because some folks want perfection rather than just a whole lot better.
 

Blumlein 88

Grand Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
20,521
Likes
37,050
Just wait till water rationing hits the southwest, wildfires and more freezing winters and floods in Texas. Public sentiment is changing about climate change. My county banned natural gas in new construction and renovation of homes. As Russia expedites Europe's transition away from fossil fuels these impediments will force change faster than one thinks possible. Electricity is in virtually every structure in the modern world and the sun shines and wind blows every day making electricity much cheaper than fossil fuel harnessing.
Do you think banning some sources of energy will result in cheaper or more expensive electricity? Seems your county didn't think this thru.
 

Blumlein 88

Grand Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
20,521
Likes
37,050
Actually, the US is already doing one of the world's most successful energy transitions - the transition from coal burning power plants to natural gas power plants. Gas is about a 50% reduction compared to coal in greenhouse gas emissions.

And the sun doesn't shine every day, and wind doesn't blow every day. That's a big problem that costs a lot of money to solve. The best way to provide base loads when there's insufficient sun or wind are natural gas turbines, but these often get blocked at the state or local level by the environmental lobbies, like where I live. Next summer we might get rolling blackouts because some folks want perfection rather than just a whole lot better.
Yes, one of the ironies of all the concern about the USA not agreeing and signing onto those climate accords was years later, no one who signed on met the goals, and the USA exceeded the reduction in carbon emissions by those who were part of that agreement.
 

Timcognito

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,349
Likes
12,546
Location
NorCal
Next summer we might get rolling blackouts because some folks want perfection rather than just a whole lot better.
Solar panels and Powerwall 2 battery solved that for my family and I got a discount for bundling by Tesla and $4500 tax credit from the US government.
 

blueone

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
May 11, 2019
Messages
1,179
Likes
1,494
Location
USA
Solar panels and Powerwall 2 battery solved that for my family and I got a discount for bundling by Tesla and $4500 tax credit from the US government.
The solar option with a Powerwall is way too expensive and complicated for my home, and I don't want a Tesla. We're thinking about a 24KW Generac natural gas powered generator. Much cheaper overall, and IMO a far better solution. For one thing, no ugly panels on my roof. We wouldn't get a big win from solar because our average electric bill is less than $200, and we only get two somewhat more expensive months.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom